Harry S. Dent June 2012 Update

Harry S. Dent published their latest update on YouTube.

After having been the perfect contrarian indicator in late March 2012, he seems to have recovered from his Hopium high. This is a great analysis of what is currently happening, and he forecasts markets are toping as we speak. I don't have time to provide a summary here, but I'm sure you will have 9 minutes to spare for this very good update.

Harry S. Dent 90 Minute Interview

Harry S. Dent was interviewed on Gonobo Radio. The 90 min interview is available on YouTube and embedded below:

Harry is still a deflationist, and expect all hard commodities to decline, along with the stock markets. This is a long term perspective interview, and remains interesting, although Harry is declining in my esteem as he's making more and more comments with which I strongly disagree, and starts sharing political opinion along with his demographics and markets analysis, and for most parts, his political ideas are plain dumb.

A few quotes that might shock inflationists:

• I don't like gold, I don't like silver
• Commodities have peaked in 2008 and have experienced their secondary peak in 2011.
• Commodities are going down for the next decade.
• Keynesian economics are going to die here.

Stupid comments:

• The rich have to pay more taxes because they benefited the most from the boom. This is a political, socialist opinion, which doesn't fit with the rest of the talk
• There's not enough gold to go back to the gold standard. That worked during the Roman empire, but it wouldn't work now. That's one of the most stupid yet most common error about the gold standard. Gold is a measure of value and wealth. It doesn't matter how much there is, as long as there's a fixed and stable amount. It's as to say that there aren't enough yards or kilograms to measure the length of the roads, now, because there are far more roads now than during the roman empire. The price of anything can be determined instantaneously by dividing the price in whatever currency, by the price of spot gold, in that same currency. It doesn't contain any relation to the amount of gold available.

Harry S. Dent Turns Bullish on Stocks, Forecasts New All Time High

In one of the most amazing bear-capitulations of the past many months, Harry S. Dent, interviewed on GoldSeek Radio (link to the MP3 file embedded below, interview starts at about 42"30') on Friday, announced that stocks will make a new high, at about 1,600 S&P 500 points.

Points from the interview:

• QE3 in the next 2-3-4 months
• Stocks and gold will like it
• It will be inflationary
• Now believes the stocks will finish 2012 in record territory
• S&P to reach 1,600 and Dow 15,000 by early next year before the Fed runs out of bullets
• Gold to gain 10-15%, Silver to reach the $40s but not make new highs
• At least a 70% crash to follow (2013?)

 

For those of you who have been following my blog or Harry S. Dent, you are probably quite aware of him being a vocal deflationist, and forecasting a market crash just a few months/weeks ago.

If Harry S. Dent is proven wrong on this call, it could very likely to be one of those capitulations which marks tops. Jeremy Grantham did it back in April 2010. Will it be a long term or a short term one? I can't tell yet. 

Harry S. Dent on Bloomberg TV

Harry S. Dent was on Bloomberg TV on Friday the 27th and discussed demographics and deflation.
Not much news, he's still recommending safety and forecasting a risk-off trade that will take all asset classes down, including equities, gold, silver, oil, other commodities, etc.

Harry S. Dent Interviewed on Straight Talk Wealth

Harry S. Dent was interviewed on Straight Talk Wealth last week — follow link for the HD footage of the interviews.

Here's the summary of one-hour in-depth interview:

• Introduction about Harry's background, and the effectiveness of contrary thinking
• Is the government making things better?
• It's generational cycle of spending that is ending, and a cycle of saving beginning.
• Goes into much detail to explain how he conducts his forecasts (demographics and another indicators he uses) and why most other economists are wrong.
• The interviewer does a good job at asking HSDent to explain why he made a call for the Dow to reach 40,000 and why this forecast failed.
• Discusses past bubble, speculative behaviours
• Government's behaviour, their role in creating the bubbles and inflation
• His views on how to solve the crisis — write down the debt, deleverage. Along with some comments about what the government should do, but with which I do not agree as they are not based on free market principles.
• Why the Fed created bubble will pop and the markets crash
• Why we'll going to deflate, why deflation shouldn't hurt people, only creditors if they admitted they have to write down the debt.
• What will happen in the Eurozone with the current debt crisis: nothing will save Greece unless they write down the debt by at least 60%, no stimulus or bandaid will fix the problem.
• Doesn't like Treasuries, Silver, Gold (for the wrong reasons in my opinion).
• The healthcare and tax systems are so broken, they cannot be repaired, we need to start over from scratch.
• We'll have a major change in the next 10 years, almost as big as a new Constitution.
• We'll see the end of Keynesian economics (I would LOVE to see that happen).

The videos are embedded below:

I've read his books, and it's a great and cheap way to get access to all the HS Dent data, charts and understand their methodology. I would definitely recommend them.

Harry S. Dent 1-Hour Interview on Australia's The Room Live

Harry S. Dent made a very good summary of all his points of views and opinions in this close to one hour interview on The Room Live (Australian show?). The interview is available on YouTube.

  

It's too long for me to provide a summary, but what I'll do, is highlight the statements I disagree with, in order to avoid any confusion with my readers:

• "There is not enough gold to return to the gold standard". That's nonsense. It's like saying there isn't enough kgs to move to the metric system.
• Bubble are great for the economy. I don't think I need to debunk that one...
• "Economists are very smart people". Uh... Hello?

Finally, I would like to point out that this interview was made on the 12th of January 2010. So it's easy to find out whether he was right, or not, on what his forecasts.

Harry S. Dent's January 2012 Market Update

Harry S. Dent published his market forecast for the coming year on January the 11th (available on YouTube).

Summary:

• Time to get out of stocks NOW.
• Austerity is the right policy from his point of view, even if it means short term pain, but can avoid long term insolvency.
• Worldwide slowdown coming
• 4,000,000 foreclosures in the pipeline, which banks have been holding down.
• By the time the Fed reacts with Q3, it will be too late.
• This looks like the final rally. Where do we top is the final question. 1371 is the top of the range they forecast.
• The USD will rally while equities, commodities including gold, and real estate will fall massively.

Harry S. Dent Interview on CNBC by Rick Santelli

Harry S. Dent was interviewed on CNBC on the 3rd of January by Rick Santelli. He discussing the coming economic and financial crash, which will happen, according to him, this year, and more probably in Q2.

Harry S. Dent and Arch Crawford Interviews on GoldSeek Radio

Both Arch Crawford and Harry S. Dent were interviewed last Friday on GoldSeek Radio.

As usual, Arch Crawford is talking about astrology and apocalypse.

And Harry S. Dent is talking about the crash ahead — probably in 2012 — and the China Bust that's coming as well.

You can listen to the interview from the link above or the embedded player below: 

 

Arch Crawford's interview starts at about 0:37:00

Harry S. Dent's interview starts at about 0:51:30

25 min Interview of Harry S. Dent and Rodney Johnson

Harry S. Dent and Rodney Johnson presented their view on the economy, the demographics and the coming crash of all the risky assets and the rise of the US in this 25 min interview by Kathy Fountain available on HSDent.com (sorry, no embedded version available).

Harry S. Dent Offers Free Webinar and Report

Harry S. Dent is offering a free webinar and presentation of his latest book.

You can follow this link to benefit from this offer. [I have no affiliation whatsoever]

He also a free PDF report: The Trend Ahead: Deflation & Deeper Downturn

Harry S. Dent Interview On the YES! Energy Summit

Harry S. Dent was interviewed on the YES! Energy Summit on the 11th of October — sorry for the late post, as you realize, I am still way behind my postings — where he discusses topics not related to the markets.

He discusses his past, entrepreneurship, and other interesting topics that he usually doesn't touch during his interviews.

Harry also discusses his new book, and the collapse of the major bubbles still in place. He forecasts Silver going back to $5 and the Dow to 3,800.

These are some new materials and ideas for those who follow Harry S. Dent. He also gives away — as a free download — a pack containing 4 audio CD and 2 PDF documents about the coming debt collapse.

You can watch the video interview from the link above or download the FLV file directly here.

Harry S. Dent Interview on The Disciplined Investor

Harry S. Dent, whose newest book, The Great Crash Ahead, I found on my doorstep when I got back from holiday,  was interviewed on The Disciplined Investor on the 9th of October.

Unsurprisingly, he goes into mostly the same points as those on GoldSeek Radio, which I summarized here.

Here's the link to the MP3 file and the embedded player is below. The interview starts at about 16"30: 

Harry S. Dent Interview on GoldSeek Radio

Harry S. Dent, whose newest book, The Great Crash Ahead, I found on my doorstep when I got back from holiday, was interviewed on October the 10th on GoldSeek Radio.

The bullet point summary is:

• Stocks rally into the year end, the final rally before they crash again.
• It's going to take 1.5 to 2 years to play out.
• There might a short term surge in Internet spending.
• Then he goes on again explaining why we'll have deflation again, and why the Fed will fail to create inflation after a short-term bounce. "They are going to be check-mated".

Here's the link the MP3 file and also the embedded player just below:

PS: There's an easter egg in this post. But you can only see it if you open it on your browser (no email, feed, etc.)

Harry S. Dent Interview on Bloomberg TV

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Harry Dent, founder of economic advisory firm HS Dent and author of The Great Crash Ahead talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He speaks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart."

Special Economic Update From HSDent's Rodney Johnson

HSDent's Rodney Johnson delivered a 1.5 hour webinar discussing the recent developments in the financial markets.

Rodney provides an expert look at the 'State of the Economy' and gives you strategies that you can use right now to secure your current finances and benefit from what lies ahead.

They have now made it available online, and you can watch it by following this link to watch the full 90+ minute presentation.

Harry S. Dent Market Update Video

Harry S. Dent posted a few days ago a market update video and also announced that his new book, The Great Crash Ahead [which I happen to have pre-ordered!], will be available this September. Although I won't agree with all the points he raised, here they are, raw output:

• He now believes we have seen the top, back in May, and that the top he thought we'd have in 2012 will not be anything but a dead cat bounce from the lows we will reach in 2011, but won't see a higher top than the 2011 one.
• They have counted $122 trillion of private debt in the US, that will need to de-leveraged.
• There is strong support around 1010-1040 on the S&P 500, so there could be a rally at this point, before the next wave down in late September/October. The bounce is a selling opportunity.
• He advises against piling into treasuries — for the wrong reasons in my opinion.
• He advises against piling into gold and silver and actually has given a sell signal on silver when it reached $49. They are now looking at giving a second sell signal, on both gold and silver, and forecast that the crash in these two metals are going to crash the most.

 

Harry S. Dent interviewed on GoldSeek radio

Harry S. Dent was interviewed last Friday on GoldSeek Radio (link to MP3). He discusses the following points:

• Housing is not coming back
• Jobs are not coming back
• Stocks will not peak much higher than the current peak, but they will peak in early 2012
• He now seems more balanced between deflation and inflation while he used to be a full blown deflationist, he mentions that he "favours deflation, but it will depend on what will the government do". A bit odd to me!
• Expects crash in 2012

You can listen from the link above or the embedded player below:

Harry S. Dent interviewed on FoxNews

Harry S. Dent was interviewed about an hour ago on FoxNews. During this short 3-4 minute interview, he exposes his idea about the markets and the economy. In short:

• Markets to stabilize over the next couple of weeks, prior to rebounding and making a marginally new high.
• The crash will happen in 2012-2013.
• The dollar should rally 30-40%
• The Dow will bottom at around 3,000 points. Optimistic target would be 6,000

Harry S. Dent interviewed on The Disciplined Investor

Harry S. Dent was interviewed last Friday on The Disciplined Investor by Andrew Horowitz.

You can skip the first 18 minutes where Andrew discussed his opinion about the Euro and the fundamentals behind it — with obvious and complete misunderstanding of all the economic forces and political issues involved.

Some quotes (taken while listening so rephrased at the same time...)

In 2012-2013 we're going to see another major crash like in 2008-2009. It's going to be in every asset class — stocks, commodities, bonds, real estate — and worldwide — US, Europe, China, India, etc.

It's just a matter of when are the markets are going to get that we're not going back to normal.

I call it denial. [...] The reality, eventually sets in.

We need to restructure private debt as well as sovereign debt.

[...] There is no way out.

A couple of completely silly suggestions: Andrew (backed by Harry!) suggests that the solution is to sell their islands.

How silly is that?

Why would they do that — this is just pillage of the nation by the politicians — when it's just so simple to default on the debt? This is just so easy: default, wipe out the creditor, and get a brand new balance sheet. In the process, nobody will be willing to lend to Greece for several years, and hence the government will not be able to borrow from future generations to provided unsustainable welfare to the current generation.

You can download the interview in MP3 format, or listen with the embedded player below (start at around 18"30):