Quick update: I have bought some gold (GLD@121.50) and silver (SLV@19.60) as I find the correction to be very substantial and sentiment readings to be extremely negative.
Again, this is a short term trade as on the long term, I believe PMs will drop in value over the next few years, with silver trading in the single digits at some point, and that's the view I've been sharing since silver was close to $50.
Showing posts with label Trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trading. Show all posts
2013-12-11
2013-09-25
Closed Gold and Silver position
I've been away for too long and have missed a number of opportunities with the markets... Including selling my gold and silver when the sentiment peaked a few weeks ago...
I just closed my long gold (open GLD@119.28 - close GLD@129.09) and a long silver positions (open SLV@18.24 - close SLV@21.09) with a small gain, but disappointing compared to what it could have been if I had more time on my hands!
I just closed my long gold (open GLD@119.28 - close GLD@129.09) and a long silver positions (open SLV@18.24 - close SLV@21.09) with a small gain, but disappointing compared to what it could have been if I had more time on my hands!
2013-07-29
Short ES futures contract [Updated]
I just shorted the ES SP500 contract @ 1682.00
I intend this trade to be short term trade, lasting only a few days, but I keep my options open.
Update: Call it luck, but the ES just dropped 5 points within minutes of entering my trade. I now have a GTC stop order @ 1681, making sure that this trade will not lose money.
I intend this trade to be short term trade, lasting only a few days, but I keep my options open.
Update: Call it luck, but the ES just dropped 5 points within minutes of entering my trade. I now have a GTC stop order @ 1681, making sure that this trade will not lose money.
2013-06-26
Gold and Silver Trade
It's been a very long while since I last posted here, as I've been extremely busy working 12 hours a day on the three projects that I have tried to run in parallel (most probably a mistake to have thought I could do that!). I have not even been in a position to find the time to trade or follow the markets as closely as I would have wanted.
But with gold and silver so depressed, I see value in them right now — at least for a short term trade, on the long term, I favor the depressed one digit silver price that I have been forecasting for a while. I've been quite vocal about all these "experts" who forecasting silver $150 or gold $3000 and took the short side of that trade while people were piling in on silver $47 all the way down to $36 but now that Silver is down close to 60% from the top, it seems like not a single soul is bullish on it... That's the right time for us, the realists and the contrarians, to become bullish and courageous and take the opposite side of that view.
Consequently, I have just opened a long gold (GLD@119.28) and a long silver positions (SLV@18.24). It might not be the very bottom, but probabilities are a in a favour of a relatively nice bounce.
But with gold and silver so depressed, I see value in them right now — at least for a short term trade, on the long term, I favor the depressed one digit silver price that I have been forecasting for a while. I've been quite vocal about all these "experts" who forecasting silver $150 or gold $3000 and took the short side of that trade while people were piling in on silver $47 all the way down to $36 but now that Silver is down close to 60% from the top, it seems like not a single soul is bullish on it... That's the right time for us, the realists and the contrarians, to become bullish and courageous and take the opposite side of that view.
Consequently, I have just opened a long gold (GLD@119.28) and a long silver positions (SLV@18.24). It might not be the very bottom, but probabilities are a in a favour of a relatively nice bounce.
2013-01-15
Portfolio Update
I have been away in Europe for a few weeks, and it was quite interesting to see how quickly things are deteriorating, for example en France, which looks more and more like a developing country to me.
In the meantime, my stops have been hit on my EUR/USD short and my AUD/JPY short while I was away. I was stopped at about 89.00
I nonetheless managed to open a new short position on the AUD/JPY yesterday only, but at a much more favorable entry point than my original one: new entry point is 92.50 and intend to grow it larger if the AUD keeps the levitation game going.
In the meantime, my stops have been hit on my EUR/USD short and my AUD/JPY short while I was away. I was stopped at about 89.00
I nonetheless managed to open a new short position on the AUD/JPY yesterday only, but at a much more favorable entry point than my original one: new entry point is 92.50 and intend to grow it larger if the AUD keeps the levitation game going.
2012-12-12
Extreme Sentiment: The Case of JPY and AUD - And Portfolio Update
I have been following the JPY for some time, with my friend SS. He sent me last a few charts, confirming that the historically low bullishness (or high bearishness) has reached a new extreme, and that at the same time commitment of traders is showing extreme long speculative positions on the JPY, extreme long positions on the JPY by commercials, and the opposite extremes on the AUD, one of the bubble currencies to pop in the coming debacle.
Consequently, I have opened a short AUD/JPY position in addition to my short USD/JPY position and the long USD/EUR position that I had opened a few days ago.
Consequently, I have opened a short AUD/JPY position in addition to my short USD/JPY position and the long USD/EUR position that I had opened a few days ago.
2012-12-05
Portfolio Update
I have opened a long position on the JPY and a short on the EUR both against the USD. Entry points: EUR/USD @1.3078 and JPY/USD@82.085
2012-11-01
Portfolio Update [Updated Twice]
I just went short the S&P 500 mini-ES at 1420.25 with a tight stop in place.
Update: I just closed the position at 1419.75, as it's 2 AM in Singapore and I don't want to carry the risk over the week-end.
Update 2: It looks like I picked the right entry point, but exited too early. No regrets though, with what I knew at that time, it was the right decision to do.
Update: I just closed the position at 1419.75, as it's 2 AM in Singapore and I don't want to carry the risk over the week-end.
Update 2: It looks like I picked the right entry point, but exited too early. No regrets though, with what I knew at that time, it was the right decision to do.
2012-09-14
Portfolio Update - S&P Short Stopped
I've been stopped in my short ES @1441. That was a 7 point loss; which is not great; but the market is currently trading at 1460 so it will be time to enter that position later on.
I'm on holidays for a few days since yesterday and until Sunday, which seems wasn't a great timing for me :-)
I'm on holidays for a few days since yesterday and until Sunday, which seems wasn't a great timing for me :-)
2012-09-10
Greek Equities Update
Some people call me a perma-bear but they fail to realise that I am actually able to go long when the opportunity is there. Currently 99.9% of risk assets are massively over-valued. One of the few good opportunities out there are Greek equities.
From a bottom of 0.83€ to 1.32€ trading today, Greek equities are up more than 60% in a matter of 4-5 months. And we're talking here about the index; not a random outperforming company.
I have opened a long position on them back in June, and that position is now nicely performing. Much more than the gold, silver, oil and another mania-era priced assets.
My personal opinion is that the 0.83€ was a buying opportunity of a lifetime. I'm not sure we'll see it again. but should the prices dip with the rest of the risk assets, I'm keeping myself prepared to buy more.
From a bottom of 0.83€ to 1.32€ trading today, Greek equities are up more than 60% in a matter of 4-5 months. And we're talking here about the index; not a random outperforming company.
I have opened a long position on them back in June, and that position is now nicely performing. Much more than the gold, silver, oil and another mania-era priced assets.
My personal opinion is that the 0.83€ was a buying opportunity of a lifetime. I'm not sure we'll see it again. but should the prices dip with the rest of the risk assets, I'm keeping myself prepared to buy more.
2012-09-07
Portfolio Update - Short S&P [Updated]
I'm now short the S&P 500 ES contract with entry point at 1434.00 and a stop order is in place, which I will adjust depending on market conditions. It seems like everybody is still on the buy-buy-buy mode.
Update: with the VIX collapsing and the market rising, I bought some more puts on the Equity Junk index (aka Russell 2000) before the close.
Update: with the VIX collapsing and the market rising, I bought some more puts on the Equity Junk index (aka Russell 2000) before the close.
2012-08-31
Portfolio Update - Short S&P 500 - [Updated]
Just went short the ES S&P500 Futures contract @1408.50.
Still waiting to see how markets will behave before putting in a stop or closing the position before the week-end break.
Update: Stop order @ 1406.25
Update2: Stopped and executed @ 1406.25. This is not a great outcome, but 2 S&P points in the pocket and no week-end exposure is not too bad neither.
Still waiting to see how markets will behave before putting in a stop or closing the position before the week-end break.
Update: Stop order @ 1406.25
Update2: Stopped and executed @ 1406.25. This is not a great outcome, but 2 S&P points in the pocket and no week-end exposure is not too bad neither.
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