2012-10-08

Extreme Sentiment Readings Spotted Across All Assets - Next Decline Imminent

Extreme sentiment has been spotted on all the "risk-on" trades with sentiment readings close to all times highs for most, and even making new all times high for some.

ElliottWave reports that:
  • Maket Vanes Bullish Consensus is at 70%, higher than October 2007 when the Dow made its all time high (69%).
  • According to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, Large Speculators, which are mainly hedge funds, recently moved to a record net-long position in futures and options contracts on the NASDAQ 100.
  • The 10-day average of the CBOE index put/ call ratio just declined to a record low .90, based on data since 1995.
  • As recently as mid-September, the number of sales- to-purchases of insider shares for S&P 500 companies was 40:1, according to data provided by Bloomberg.
  • A 10-day average of the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) for gold rose to 82.2% bulls on September 17
  • Silver: the Daily Sentiment Index recently surged to 92% bulls.
  • And the USD: With the Daily Sentiment Index falling to just 7% bulls on September 14, the day of the recent low at 78.60, the odds are high that these current extremes will coincide with the early phases of another significant U.S. dollar advance.
So we are getting to a point where the risk-off trade should be quite violent. Oil is already down significantly. It's about time to short AUD, CAD, EUR, Silver, Gold, and even oil and equities across the board... And go long the USD.

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