Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s dollar may fall and equities investors may look to other markets after the nation’s federal election failed to deliver a majority government for the first time in 70 years, according to market analysts.The report then goes on and on what might or might not happen in Australia.
Australia’s dollar “will bear the brunt of the uncertainty,” said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “Political uncertainty, a more unstable government, an obstructionist Senate, and the risk of medium term fiscal slippage as the minor parties exert their influence in a new government are clearly negative for the markets.”
Neither Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard nor opposition leader Tony Abbott gained an outright majority in the Aug. 21 vote, meaning one side must win negotiations with independent lawmakers to form government. The talks, which may last for days as election officials count postal votes, stoke uncertainty about issues such a Labor’s proposed mining tax, infrastructure investment and carbon trading.
“The hung parliament is going to pose some interesting problems for most major political parties in terms of how much they’re prepared to bend to form a minority government,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage about $1.1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. He said he’ll “seriously” consider increasing the amount of offshore shares he holds “until a more certain outcome prevails in Australia.”
Here are in bullet point format my thoughts:
- If everything was going so well in Australia, why did the people vote differently?
- We are at what I believe to be a secular top on the AUD and the markets in general, so the federal election will not change anything about the outcome: the popping of the biggest credit bubble in history, with Australia being one of the countries with the biggest bubble.
- Is the news stream turning bearish on the Australian economy? It might be the proof I was looking for a long term shift in sentiment about Australia. Whatever the fundamentals, markets are driven on the short term by sentiment. It means that a negative sentiment will drive the markets down.