2009-09-02

Nature's Law

This is probably the last post I will make about Robert Prechter's (and A.J. Frost's) Elliott Wave Principle. And I will quote two bits that are located at the very very end of the book (p199 and forward).

The first one is about the economics fundamentals which are the basis of the Wave Principle:
The Wave Principle exists because man refuses to learn from history, because he can always be counted upon to be led to believe that laws of nature do not exist (or more commonly, "do not apply in this case"), that what is to be consumed need not first be produced, that what is lent need never be paid back, that promises are equal to substance, that paper is gold, that benefits have no costs, that the fear which reason supports will evaporate if they are ignored or derided.

Panics are sudden emotional mass realization of reality, as are the initial upswings from the bottoms of those panics. At these points, reason suddenly impresses itself upon the mass psyche, saying, "Things have gone too far. The current levels are not justified by reality". To the extent that reason is disregarded, then, will be the extent of the extremes of mass emotional swings and their mirror, the market.
The second one is more general opinion about how democracy morphs into some sort of dictatorship of the more numerous:
[...] each living thing in the natural setting either provides for its own existence or is granted no existence. [...] No living thing other than man ever demands that its neighbors support it because that is its right, as there is no such right. [...]

Lord Thomas Babington Macaulay, British historian [...] correctly ascertained the root of the problem over a hundred years ago in a letter to H.S. Randall of New York dated May 23rd, 1857:

The day will come when in the State of New York a multitude of people, non of whom had more than half a breakfast, or expects to have more than half a dinner will choose the legislature. Is it possible to doubt what sort of legislature will be chosen? On one side is a statesman preaching patience, respect for vested rights, strict observance of public faith. On the other is a demagogue ranting about the tyranny of capitalists and usurers, and asking why anybody should be permitted to drink champagne and to ride in a carriage while thousands of honest folk are in want of necessaries?
[...]
As this century progresses, it becomes clearer that in order to satisfy the demands of some individuals and groups for the output of others [...]. He has not only mortgaged his present output, but he has mortgaged the output of future generations by eating the capital that took generations to accumulate.

In the name of a right that does not exist within the law of nature, man has forced acceptance of paper that represents nothing but costs everything, he has bought, spent and promised at an exponential rate, creating in the process the greatest debt pyramid in the history of the world, refusing to acknowledge that these debts must ultimately be paid in one form or another.
[...]
When the producers who are leeched upon disappear or are consumed, the leeches who remain will have lost their life support system, and the laws of nature will have to be patiently relearned.
"A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine."
-Thomas Jefferson

When reading these quotes, and see how accurately they apply to the current events, it's difficult to believe that this book was written in 1978, about 30 years ago

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