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2012-08-21

Facebook and Groupon IPO: Facebook Unlocks 270 Million Shares, 1.4 Billion to Follow — Peter Thiel Sells Most of His Stake — Groupon Backers Divested Their Stakes

I wrote about Facebook and Groupon yesterday in a post titled The Most Successful IPOs this Year?. Here are some follow up stories which appeared after I published my post:
(Bloomberg) — Facebook Inc. director Peter Thiel sold most of his stake in the operator of the world’s largest social-networking website, bringing his divestment to date to more than $1 billion, after restrictions on insider sales ended. 
Thiel, one of Facebook’s earliest investors, sold about 20.1 million shares in the company on Aug. 16 and Aug. 17, raising $395.8 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 
The sale, including $640.1 million in proceeds from the initial public offering, makes the venture capitalist and hedge- fund manager one of the biggest beneficiaries of Facebook’s rise. Concern that early investors, including Thiel -- who initially invested $500,000 in the fledgling startup in 2004 -- would sell holdings has been weighing on the stock. 
Shares in Menlo Park, California-based Facebook, which are down by almost a half from the May 17 initial public offering, rose 5 percent to $20.01 at the close in New York today.
Facebook last week unlocked 271.1 million shares, the first of five insider-sale restrictions scheduled during the company’s first year as a public company. Another 1.44 billion shares will be freed up through November. 
The share sales revealed today were tied to a trading plan adopted by Thiel on May 18, Facebook’s first day of trading, according to the regulatory filing. Thiel still holds more than 5 million shares. The reported proceeds don’t reflect underwriter or broker fees.
(Bloomberg) — Groupon Inc. backers Battery Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz have divested their stakes in the daily-deal website, joining a group of early investors who have sold the stock and added pressure to slumping shares. 
Battery sold all of its 15.99 million shares earlier this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Andreessen Horowitz sold its 5.1 million shares in June, said a person with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named because the sale wasn’t publicly disclosed. 
[...]
“These are the people that were the initial backers that probably know more about the details behind Groupon’s results than the general public,” said Larry Chiagouris, a professor of marketing at Pace University’s Lubin School of Business in New York. “The fact that they have chosen to move their positions out of the company tells you that they obviously believe there’s likely to be more downside.” 
Grace Ellis, a spokeswoman for Menlo Park, California-based Andreessen Horowitz, declined to comment on the firm’s holdings. Karen Bommart, a spokeswoman for Menlo Park-based Battery Ventures, declined to comment. Paul Taaffe, a spokesman for Chicago-based Groupon, didn’t respond to requests for comment.
(Yahoo Breakout) Shares of Facebook (FB) hit a fresh all-time low, falling as much as 6.5% in early trading after the company's insider lockup period expired. As many as 271 million shares could potentially hit the market today. It's the first of a series of expirations that could result in almost 2-billion shares being released to the public over the next two years. Facebook currently has 420 million shares in the public markets.
Ironically, with all this bearishness, we're most likely to rebound from here for a few weeks and continue the collapse in a straight line.

2011-04-15

"Markets are partying like it’s 1999 again" — Still Better: Facebook to become the world's largest bank by 2015

As several people mentioned to me in the past several days, sentiment is extreme, indeed, but it can always get more extreme. This is true, and here's just another proof. Oh and this genius forecaster prides himself as being the fist person to coin the term “Web 3.0”. Well, here, I coin the term Web 4.0™©®. Done.
The explosion of social networking commerce will lead to the unlikely candidate of Facebook becoming the world’s biggest bank by the middle of the decade, according to a technology observer and entrepreneur.

People who don’t have a Facebook account should get one or risk having a financial profile created for them says founder and president of Metal International, Ken Rutkowski.
[...]
“Facebook will be the largest bank by 2015. I hear you say ‘how can they be a bank’ what’s going on?”

According to Rutkowski, Facebook credits allow people to play games and Facebook is already doing deals with the banks for credit profiles.

“If you play games on Facebook, which, by the way 40 to 50 per cent of the time spent on Facebook is playing games, and those games – like Farmville and Mafia Wars – are paid for and you have to buy credits for that and they are called Facebook Credits.”

Rutkowski cited the company Zynga that created Farmville as being worth almost $12 billion now and it “didn’t even exist 18 months ago”.

“In China and a lot of the Asian areas right now that is becoming a massive revenue source and that currency is going to start spreading and Facebook is doing deals with banks around the world right now to create an exchange mechanism,” he said.

“Why is its important to have a profile? They are going to start using that to determine what your credit worthiness is.”

“By the way, if you don’t have a profile they will make one for you so it’s better for you to create it and manage it than them. That’s why you want to be selective with what you put on there. If you have kids that are being idiots online make sure you stop them right away as they are creating a pretty negative profile long term and it happens often.”

Rutkowski runs the Founder Institute in Los Angeles which launches about 1000 companies year and prides himself as being the fist person to coin the term “Web 3.0” during a press conference with Google CEO Eric Schmidt.

Rutkowski asked Schmidt what Google was doing with “Web 3.0” and Schmidt replied Web 2.0 was just a marketing term and that he was “the inventor” of Web 3.0.
[...]

2012-04-01

Facebook Valued at $102.8 Billion in Final Auction on SharesPost

Facebook is now valued more than $100 billion, for profits of about $1 billion. That would put the company for an initial PER of about 100.

Now, with already about 800 million users, how many more users can Facebook have? Remember FB is blocked in China, and you still need a computer and/or mobile phone connected to the Internet, to play with it. How much more can FB grow?

I hope I'm wrong, as I think the FB guys have done a fantastic job and are great technologists. But $100 billion will be a very high valuation, and given the current euphoria on the markets, the IPO day could be the perfect day for a major top.
(Bloomberg) Mar 31, 2012 — Facebook Inc. (FB)’s implied valued rose 8.9 percent to $102.8 billion yesterday in what was expected to be the last auction of its stock on SharesPost Inc.’s exchange before the social-networking company’s initial public offering. 
SharesPost completed the auction at a price of $44.10 for 150,000 units, the firm said in an e-mailed statement. That’s up from an auction earlier this month with a price of $40.50 a share, valuing the company at $94.4 billion, based on a share count of 2.33 billion. 
Facebook (FB), the world’s most popular social-networking service, filed for an IPO last month that could value the business at between $75 billion and $100 billion, people familiar with the matter have said. The Menlo Park, California- based company, which has more than 845 million users, is seeking $5 billion in what would be the largest Internet IPO on record. The company decided to halt the trading of its shares on secondary markets at the end of this week as it prepares for the IPO, two people with knowledge of the matter said. 
Facebook aims to hold the offering in early May, one person said. SharesPost moved up the date of the Facebook auction to yesterday from April 2 to meet the deadline. Earlier this month, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settled with SharesPost to resolve claims that the online marketplace acted as an unregistered broker of shares. It was the first action in a broad probe of trades involving nonpublic startups.
Earnings/profits source:
(SearchEngineJournal.com) During the first six months of 2011, Facebook, which has over 750 million active users, has reportedly earned $500 million on $1.6 billion of revenue. When compared to the $355 million earned on $1.2 billion of revenue during the first nine months of 2010, the financial indications of Facebook’s future look bright.

2011-01-08

Market Sentiment: We're back in good old 2000s, with Facebook valued 100 times earnings.

Facebook financials avec been leaked by Goldman Sachs' client as reported by Reuters. So Facebook is making $500 million a year, and is already valued at about $50 billion. 100 times the earnings. Market sentiment has been reaching historical extremes in the past couple of months, and here's just another stone to the edifice. We're back to the top of the internet bubble of the 2000s, except that we're in 2011 now...
(Reuters) - Facebook earned $355 million in net income in the first nine months of 2010, according to documents distributed by Goldman Sachs, a fraction of the online social network's $50 billion valuation.
[...]
"They probably did at least $500 million in net income in 2010," Jacob said.

Goldman began hand-delivering copies of the 101-page private placement memorandum for a $1.5 billion Facebook offering to its wealthy customers a little after lunchtime in New York, according to a person who received a copy.

The Goldman customer said he received a separate six-page financial statement containing information on the social networking company.

The document provides some of the most detailed financial information yet about Facebook, which Goldman recently valued at $50 billion in a separate, $450 million funding.
[...]
The financial statements were not audited and offered little detail about how Facebook generates it revenue, said the source, who did not want to be identified because he had signed a non-disclosure agreement.
[...]
Investors are increasingly eager to buy shares of Facebook and other fast-growing Internet social networking companies on private exchanges.
Reminder:
In just within one month, all the stars have aligned and we now have the perfect set up for a major major top followed by a sharp decline which probably will be even more dramatic than what we experienced in 2008. See for yourself the previous "achievements" of Mr Market:
  1. No New Normal Next Year Seen by Strategists Predicting 11% Gain in S&P 500
  2. Hedge Funds Raise Commodity Gain Bets to 4-Year High
  3. Put Call Ratio: Everyone’s Betting On The Bull
  4. Volatility is back to April 2010 levels
  5. Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio At Highest Since Dot Com Collapse
  6. US CEOs Most Optimistic since 2006
  7. Extreme bullishness in emerging countries, money pouring into stocks at the fastest pace since 2007, biggest rally in 16 years
  8. SentimentTrader.com: Equity Hedging Index is at a new record low
  9. Trading of U.S. stock options soared to the second-highest level in nearly four decades of history
  10. Please also note that the put/call ratio is dangerously approaching the historically low level of April 2010
  11. Volatility as measured by the VIX falls back to April 2007 levels
  12. Best time to buy stock in decades (yes, there's an ending 's' at decades)
  13. Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt. chairman: "2011, Year of the USA"
  14. Market Sentiment: Margin Debt Soars to Highest Levels Since September 2008
  15. Market sentiment: crude oil bets reach a four-year high

2012-02-27

Over Bullishness Illustrated

Since January, the froth in the market and over bullishness has not been compensated by any meaningful decline. Any decline has been retraced the next day. The major rally that started in October 2011 has been, in my opinion, much overdone, and has a very high risk of severe correction, if not finally a capitulation of the bulls.

Here are some quotes from the news flow since January — I'm sorry, I won't have time to comment on them as they are too numerous, but anybody with their reality lenses on should see that big trouble is ahead. You will also notice the rationalisation, and the denial of economic reality, explaining why the market will keep on going up.


Bull Market Defying Strategists Seen Continuing by Birinyi
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Laszlo Birinyi, whose prediction the bull market would weather a five-month retreat came true in October when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 11 percent, says stocks will keep climbing in 2012. 
Equities will gain at least 8 percent as improving corporate profits force bears to capitulate, according to Birinyi, who manages $400 million in Westport, Connecticut. Forecasts for declines from economists Gary Shilling and Nouriel Roubini were repudiated in 2011 as the benchmark gauge for American equities erased a 13 percent drop.
Speculators Increase Bullish Wagers Most Since ‘10
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds raised their wagers on higher commodity prices by the most since July 2010 after signs of accelerating U.S. growth bolstered optimism that demand for raw materials will strengthen. 
Money managers expanded their combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 25 percent to 671,915 contracts in the week ended Jan. 3, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Bullish bets on cotton rose the most since April 2009 and those on coffee doubled. Crude-oil holdings reached a three-week high.[...] 
“The economy is back,” Chris Rupkey, the chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., wrote in a report Jan. 6. “Despite some evidence of slowing in places like Canada, Brazil, China, and of course Europe, the prospect for continued growth in the U.S. is a bright one.”
Market Shrinks First Time Since '09 on U.S. Buybacks, Sales

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks are getting scarcer in the U.S. for the first time since the bull market began as companies cut share sales to the lowest level since 2006 and buy back equity at the fastest pace in four years. 
Amgen Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co. and 1,971 other U.S. companies repurchased $397 billion of stock last year, while they issued $169 billion of new equity, data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc. and Bloomberg show. The combination reduced the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index divisor, a measure of outstanding shares, by 0.6 percent last quarter, the first drop since March 2009. 
Shrinking supply supports prices and shows valuations are so low that executives would rather buy back shares than spend the cash to expand, according to Columbia Management Investment Advisers LLC and USAA Investment Management Co. Bears say dwindling growth prospects will limit gains and deter investors who pulled money from stock funds for eight straight months through December, the longest stretch in at least two decades. 
“Having that equity base shrink and starting from a relatively pessimistic point usually sets up pretty well in the long term,” Laton Spahr, who helps oversee $325 billion as a money manager at Columbia Management, said in a Jan. 11 phone interview from Minneapolis. “It gives you some hope that valuations have perhaps bottomed.”
Speculators Raise Metals Wagers by Most Since July: Commodities
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Speculators raised bets on higher metal prices by the most since July, turning bullish on copper for the first time in four months on signs of growth in U.S., increasing demand in China and more confidence in Europe. 
Money managers expanded combined net-long positions in five industrial and precious metals by 13 percent to 152,665 futures and options in the week ended Jan. 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. They are now the most bullish on copper since August. Traders increased holdings in silver, the precious metal most used in industry, to the highest since November. Wagers on rising gold prices advanced the most in two months.  
[...]“It’s a play on a possible demand recovery,” said Spencer Patton, the Chicago-based chief investment officer for Steel Vine Investments LLC. “People are now accepting gradually that the Europe situation is not that terrible, and China will probably have a soft landing. And the icing on the cake is the growth in the U.S.”
Gold Bulls Ascendant Amid Biggest Rally Since 1980: Commodities
Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Gold traders are bullish for a fourth consecutive week, betting that the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low until late 2014 will extend the metal’s best start to a year in more than three decades. 
Nine of 15 surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week. The value of gold held in exchange-traded products jumped $3.9 billion on Jan. 25, the most since October, as the central bank laid the groundwork for a possible third round of asset purchases, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of bullion because it generally earns investors returns only through price gains. 
Hedge-Fund Bulls Add to Bets as Rally Accelerates: Commodities
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds increased wagers on rising commodity prices to the most in two months and the rally in raw materials accelerated as the Federal Reserve pledged to keep borrowing costs low for three more years. 
Money managers raised combined bullish positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 13 percent to 742,902 contracts in the week ended Jan. 24, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The so-called net-long position in copper jumped 53 percent to the highest since August and in silver by 22 percent to the most since September. Speculators also expanded bullish bets in sugar, soybeans, cotton, gold, gasoline and crude oil. 
Facebook Files to Raise $5 Billion in Biggest Internet IPO
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc., the social-networking website that began about eight years ago in a Harvard University dorm, filed to raise $5 billion in an initial public offering in what would be the largest Internet IPO on record. 
Facebook, which now boasts more than 800 million users, didn’t specify the number or price of shares it will offer in a regulatory filing today. The $5 billion amount is a placeholder used to calculate fees and may change. The Menlo Park, California-based company hired Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Allen & Co. to manage the IPO. 
Co-founded in 2004 by then 19-year-old Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook has grown into the dominant social-networking company, squelching competitors such as MySpace Inc. Revenue in 2011 surged 88 percent to $3.71 billion, with about 85 percent coming from advertising, according to the filing. 
“Investors are still very much willing to pay up for growth,” Paul Bard, director of research at the investment- advisory firm Renaissance Capital LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut, said before the filing. “There’s just phenomenal interest in this company and its potential.”
Facebook is considering a valuation of $75 billion to $100 billion, two people with knowledge of the matter said last week. At the high end of the range, that would value Facebook at 26.9 times trailing 12-month sales, more than double Google Inc.’s valuation when the search-engine operator went public in 2004.
[...] 
Net income last year surged by almost two-thirds to $1 billion, the filing showed. Last year, Facebook said it expects U.S. regulators to require that it disclose financial results by April 30, 2012, if the company hasn’t gone public by then. Facebook decided to wait until 2012 for its IPO to give Zuckerberg more time to gain users and boost sales, people familiar with the matter said in 2010. 
Carry Trade Rallies Like '09 as Volatility Ebbs Amid Threats
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- In the $4 trillion-a-day currency market, traders calmed by a flood of central bank money are leaving safety for riskier bets against a background of Greece’s potential default and threats of nuclear weapons in Iran. 
Borrowing in dollars or yen to buy high-yielding Brazilian reais and Mexican pesos has returned 5.5 percent this year, the best start on record, and reversing last year’s 15 percent loss, the UBS AG V24 Carry Index shows. Market volatility dropped last week to the lowest since August 2008, as measured by a JPMorgan Chase & Co. index. 
Increasing trades that depend on stability underscores growing confidence that the global economy and financial system will withstand shocks as central bankers blanket the world with cash. It’s also proving a challenge for emerging markets such as Brazil, where policy makers renewed purchases of dollars to keep the real from strengthening too fast and damaging growth. 
“There’s less nervousness in the market in general,” Jose Wynne, the head of North America foreign-exchange research at the investment banking unit of Barclays Plc, said in a Feb. 7 telephone interview. “Now that the central banks are pumping on one side of the system, you have people jumping on carry trades everywhere.”
Speculators Lift Wagers to Highest Since September: Commodities
Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds increased bets on rising commodity prices to the highest since September on mounting confidence that growth in the U.S. will strengthen demand. 
Money managers boosted their combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 13 percent to 929,199 contracts in the week ended Feb. 7, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the highest since Sept. 20. Bullish wagers on copper rose to a six-month high, and soybean holdings jumped by the most this year. 
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities rose to a six-month high on Feb. 9, a day after the MSCI All- Country World Index entered a bull market, as indicators signaled accelerating growth. Fewer Americans than forecast filed claims for jobless benefits in the week to Feb. 4, and consumer confidence rose to a one-year high. Investments in commodities expanded for a seventh week, the longest streak since February 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 
“The improving economic data, not just in the U.S., we’ve seen better data in Europe as well, has put recession fears on the back burner,” said Anthony Valeri, a market strategist with LPL Financial in San Diego, which oversees $330 billion of assets. “That augers well for commodity demand.” 
David Bianco Hired By Deutsche Bank To Complete Trinity Of Perma Bull

Gold Bulls Expand as Billionaire Paulson Says Buy: Commodities
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Gold traders are getting more bullish after billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson told investors it’s time to buy the metal as protection against inflation caused by government spending.          
S&P 500 Cheapest to Bonds as Zero Rates Boost Spending
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is approaching the cheapest level ever compared with bonds as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s zero-percent interest rates drive investors and companies from cash. 
Profits that doubled since 2009 pushed the index’s so- called earnings yield to 7.1 percent, close to the highest on record when compared with the 10-year Treasury rate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg since 1962. American companies have boosted capital spending 35 percent over six quarters, the most since 2006. 
“Conditions are almost ideal for equity investors relative to all other investments,” Keith Wirtz, who oversees $14.6 billion as chief investment officer for Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati, said in a Feb. 14 telephone interview. “The Fed’s keeping rates low for the foreseeable future to try to stimulate the environment for employee hiring and business activity. What does that mean for capital markets? Savers are not being rewarded.”        
S&P 500 Gets Cheaper as Record Profit Restores Trillions
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Profits in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are rising faster than its price, leaving the gauge 9 percent cheaper than it was in April even after American equities climbed within 0.1 percent of last year’s high. 
The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 1,363.46 today following a rally since October that added as much as $3.2 trillion to share values, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the index is just shy of its 2011 peak of 1,363.61, expanding income has pushed the price-earnings ratio to 14.1 from 15.4 in April. 
Economic growth that has been slower than any post- recession period since at least the 1940s is keeping investors from paying more for earnings even after stocks doubled in three years. The best January for the S&P 500 in 15 years has coincided with a decline in New York Stock Exchange trading volume to the lowest level since 1999 and record deposits with investment-grade bond funds. 
“The world is profoundly underinvested in U.S. equities,” Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida, said in a phone interview on Feb. 21. His firm manages $300 billion. “The public is bombarded with all these negatives. Greece this, Portugal that, dysfunctional governments. The retail investor is frozen.”


Bullish Futures Exceed One Million Contracts: Commodities
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bullish commodities futures rose above 1 million contracts for the first time in five months as U.S. growth prospects improved and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further price gains. 
Hedge funds and money managers boosted combined net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 7.3 percent to 1.03 million contracts in the week ended Feb. 21, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the highest since Sept. 13. Bullish wagers on gold climbed to a five-month high, and bets on crude oil rose to the most since May. 
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities capped its biggest weekly increase of the year last week, touching a nine-month high on Feb. 24. U.S. consumer confidence rose more than forecast in February, and new-home sales topped estimates. Goldman reiterated an “overweight” recommendation on raw materials on Feb. 22.
“The U.S. is showing better signs of self-sustaining economic activity,” said Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $27 billion of assets as chief investment strategist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut. “What we see is reasonable global growth this year, which should be supportive of gains in overall commodities.”
And, to conclude with the icing on the cake:

 (thanks to my friend SS for sending me the Barron's cover)


2011-11-29

Facebook Valued at $100 Billion?

Facebook to be valued $100 billion. But how much is it worth? There's a difference between price and value.
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Facebook Inc. is considering raising about $10 billion in an initial public offering that would value the world’s largest social-networking site at more than $100 billion, a person with knowledge of the matter said. 
The company may file for the IPO before the end of the year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. [...] 
Facebook’s $100 billion valuation would be twice as high as it was in January, when the company announced a $1.5 billion investment from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other backers. [...] 
At $10 billion, the offering would raise more money than any other technology IPO, a sign Facebook expects investors to clamor for a piece of the social-networking company.
Investors never learn the lessons and keep on bidding on the most overvalued IPOs (LinkedIn and Groupon, just to name a few), getting burnt every time but not enough to burn into flame — yet. But like the moth flying to the flame, at some point they will burn down badly and will never be able to recover. In the meantime, we can say that the Mania Era is still far from being finished, and that long term bullishness has not be squashed yet.

2010-12-13

European phone operators want Google, Apple and Facebook to pay for their network investments

Here's a pretty unbelievable message that the European phone operators are sending: Google Inc., Apple Inc., and Facebook Inc. need to pitch in to help pay for the billions of dollars of network investments needed for their bandwidth-hogging service.

These guys are truly amazing and manage to bite the hands that feed them. Here's why.

Basically, mobile phone operators are big failures, and never managed to sell their services. Who do you know who uses MMS? Do you remember anyone using WAP? Do you even remember what WAP was? And then, who among you used the Web before the iPhone and Android? Did any of you ever used a Windows Mobile phone all the operators where promoting?

So I think the case is pretty strong to say that Google and Apple (and to a lesser extent, Facebook), saved the lives of the operators and their lack of vision was about to bring them down.

Second of all, why would it be Apple's or Google's task to invest in the telco infrastructure? If the telco need to invest, they should do so because they are selling their services to their end users, and hence, they should be charging their customers. Isn't that the most basic rule of conducting business?

They have been given a great opportunity to do business, the iPhone and Android phones are great business enablers for the mobile operators, and now, you seem to complain? It would like if Exxon and Chevron would complain that Ford and GM are producing cars that suck 1 gallon per mile. That's a tremendous waste of oil, but a great cash producing pollution generating opportunity for the oil companies. Somehow the telcos sees that from a different angle...

The only thing their stupid action might lead to, is that, as my friend blbl suggests, Apple and Google should create their own operators entities, and get rid of the telcos. If that were to happen, you can be sure that these mobile operators would be put of business very quickly.

Please see this Bloomberg report:
Google Inc., Apple Inc., and Facebook Inc. need to pitch in to help pay for the billions of dollars of network investments needed for their bandwidth-hogging services, European phone operators say.

As mobile and Web companies add videos, music and games, operators including France Telecom SA, Telecom Italia SpA and Vodafone Group Plc want a new deal that would require content providers like Apple and Google to pay fees linked to usage.

“Service providers are flooding networks with no incentive” to cut costs, France Telecom Chief Executive Officer Stephane Richard said last month. “It’s necessary to put in place a system of payments by service providers as a function of their use.”

Richard, who addressed the issue at the “Le Web” conference in Paris today, has joined Telecom Italia CEO Franco Bernabe and Telefonica SA CEO Cesar Alierta in what could turn into a cold war with Web companies. As more consumers access the Internet on mobile devices, the cost of building bigger networks may outstrip revenue growth for wireless operators, slicing their return on investment.

The mismatch between investments and revenue “is set to compromise the economic sustainability of the current business model for telecom companies,” Bernabe said.

While the number of mobile data connections in western Europe will rise by an average of 15 percent a year to 270 million in 2014, overall end-user revenue will fall about 1 percent a year, IDC estimates. Operators’ annual spending on network gear in the period will surge 28 percent from last year to about $3.7 billion, according to researcher Canalys.

Companies such as Google and Yahoo! Inc. “use Telefonica’s networks for free, which is good news for them and a tragedy for us,” Alierta said in February. “That can’t continue.”

To be sure, operators are benefitting from the surging popularity of mobile data use. Domestic data revenue at France Telecom, the biggest seller of Apple’s iPhones after AT&T Inc., surged 24 percent in the third quarter, rising to almost 32 percent of network revenue.
[...]
Last month, the tensions threatened to spill into public after a plan by Apple to introduce a so-called soft SIM in its next iPhone prompted threats from European operators to cut subsidies for the device, the Daily Telegraph reported.

A soft SIM would make it easier for consumers to switch network providers by eliminating the need for a new, physical SIM card issued by an operator to do so.

While Apple backed off for now, the technology will eventually be introduced, Sanford Bernstein analyst Robin Bienenstock said in a note to clients, calling the iPhone-maker a “frenemy” for operators.

Apple, Google, Facebook, and online-calling service Skype Technologies SA “increasingly look like integrated operators in the telecom network sector,” Telecom Italia’s Bernabe said.
[...]
“We are progressively going to switch from the unlimited approach that has been the trademark of our industry to something which is more sophisticated,” France Telecom’s Richard said today.

Unlimited data plans will become increasingly rare, said Rosalind Craven, an IDC analyst based in London.

Service providers, meanwhile, say they already pay enough.

“Currently about 40 percent of our expenses go to networks anyway -- servers, peering, our content delivery network, and other resources,” said Giuseppe de Martino, the legal and regulatory director of Paris-based online-video provider Dailymotion SA. “If telecom operators want us to share in their expenses, perhaps we should talk about sharing subscription revenues as well.”

2012-05-21

Facebook IPO — Share Price Slides as Much as 14% As The Rats Jump of the Boat

For those who expected to make a fortune by participating in the Facebook IPO, it seems like you were on the wrong side of the bet, and that only the banks underwriting the IPO, and the insiders who were selling the shares, made a fortune: on the second day of trading, and following a lackluster first day, Facebook is sliding 14% to about $33, where the IPO price was $38.

Those who bought cannot say I didn't warn them.

Finally, there's a great interview of Francine McKenna on Capital Account going deep into the financial shenanigans at Facebook, and the way the company managed to overstate massively their profits, among many other valuable insights. The interview starts at about 3min in the show:

2011-04-13

"Markets are partying like it’s 1999 again"

Markets euphoria and also commentators exuberance are showing no sign of cooling, see for yourself:

  • U.S. Stocks Rally as Dow Rises to Highest Level Since June 2008
  • Biggest Rise in Profits Since 1900 Sustains Rally After S&P 500 97% Gains
  • Zynga, Facebook Spark 51% Jump in Value of Top Web Startups
  • The markets are suddenly partying like it’s 1999 again.
Below are quotes from various Bloomberg reports (corresponding to the titles in bullet points above)

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since 2008, as Cisco Systems Inc. spurred a technology rally and European lenders’ plans to raise capital lifted financial shares.

Cisco Systems rallied 4.9 percent on speculation the maker of networking equipment will sell or spin off its consumer business. 
Note: Isn't the consumer business mentioned the Linksys company that Cisco acquired dearly during the 2006 or 2007?

Of course, Cisco could have rallied or dropped on the news, but the market decided to see the bright side of things, as it's been doing for more than 2 years now.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index [...] as high as 1,339.38, near 1,343.01, its closing high for the rally since March 2009. The Dow average advanced 32.85 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,426.75, the highest level on a closing basis since June 2008.

“We’re beginning a period of a self-sustaining recovery,” said Michael Strauss, who helps oversee $27 billion as chief investment strategist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut. “There’s strength in economic data and corporate earnings. Technology, in particular, is an area where the generation of cash flow presents an interesting valuation play. There are a number of companies looking to tweak their business models to help to get that more into focus,” he said. “If we break into new highs, we’ll certainly see new buyers into the market.”
[...]
“The fundamental drivers will probably continue to pull this market higher,” Detrick said in an interview from Cincinnati. “After that, the next logical area would be 1,440 on the S&P 500, which is the May 2008 peak.”
[...]
The S&P 500 may climb to a record 1,600 next year as U.S. corporate profits benefit from global economic growth, said Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer at U.S. Trust.

Profit by companies in the benchmark measure for U.S. equities will increase about 7 percent to 8 percent next year as the S&P 500’s valuation climbs to 16 times earnings, he said. The index is trading at 13.7 times estimated 2011 earnings, Bloomberg data show.

“Global growth is going to be rising 4.5 percent-plus through this,” Hyzy, who oversees $367.7 billion in client assets at the Bank of America Corp. unit, said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness” with Margaret Brennan. As the global expansion has a larger impact than in the past on the balance sheets of U.S. companies, Hyzy said, it may also extend the bull market. “We call it a global bull marathon, not a race,” he said.
Biggest Rise in Profits Since 1900 Sustains Rally After S&P 500 97% Gains
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest increase in profits in more than a century is telling investors that this is no time to sell stocks, even after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 97 percent.

S&P 500 earnings are poised to surpass the 2007 peak of $90 a share in the third quarter after surging from $7 in March 2009, the quickest recovery since at least 1900, according to data from S&P and Yale University’s Robert Shiller compiled by Bloomberg. The gap between projected 12-month profits and average earnings over the last 10 years is set to widen the most since 1951, the data show.
[...]
“People are more comfortable with the recovery than at any time over the last couple of years,” said Doug Ramsey, the Minneapolis-based director of research at Leuthold Group, which oversees $3.9 billion and recommended buying equities four days before the bull market started. “That’s typically when retail investors regain courage,” and may spur a rise of up to 25 percent in the S&P 500 during the next 18 months, he said.

[...]The gauge’s gain since March 9, 2009, is the most over comparable periods since 1937, according to S&P’s Howard Silverblatt. 
Shares haven’t kept up with earnings. S&P 500 companies’ 12-month profits are projected to reach a record $91 a share by August, according to estimates compiled by S&P and Bloomberg. That would be the highest-ever level on an inflation-adjusted basis and up almost 13-fold from their low two years ago, S&P and Shiller data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The 50-month rebound in profits, following a 92 percent drop during the global financial crisis, would be faster than the 52 months it took to recover from the bursting of the dot- com bubble in 2000, when earnings fell 55 percent, the data show. Profits didn’t recoup their 67 percent tumble during the Great Depression until 19 years later. [...]
The S&P 500 trades for 13.7 times estimated 2011 earnings, compared with an average of 15.7 times reported annual profit since 1900, Shiller data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Earnings for the measure will total $95.21 this year, according to S&P’s estimate when adjusted for inflation using the median economist projection for the consumer price index in a Bloomberg survey. If that forecast is met and the 12-month price-earnings multiple climbs to its mean since 1900, the S&P 500 would rise 12 percent to end December at 1,494, or 4.7 percent away from its record of 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007.
[...]
Should earnings match analysts’ forecasts next quarter, they’ll be about 59 percent higher than the 10-year average. The only other times since 1951 that the gap approached that level was in December 2006 and August 2000, near the peaks of U.S. profit and economic expansions, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

That won’t kill the rally, said E. William Stone, who predicted the 2009 gain in stocks and helps oversee about $108 billion as the Philadelphia-based chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management.
[...]
“Evidence is building that we have a self-sustaining recovery,” said Stone. “There are corporate profits. There’s the fact that consumer spending is there. Things are getting better.”
[...]
“We see accelerating growth around the globe,” Duessel, who turned bullish on U.S. stocks at the beginning of 2009, said in an interview from Pittsburgh. “That helps to continue to propel earnings. This market looks cheap to us.” 
 [...]
“The market is nowhere even close to being priced to perfection.”
Zynga, Facebook Spark 51% Jump in Value of Top Web Startups
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Zynga Inc. and Facebook Inc. led a 51 percent surge in the private market valuations of top Web companies in the first quarter, according to Nyppex LLC.

Zynga, maker of the “CityVille” and “FarmVille” online games, rose 81 percent in value from the fourth quarter to about $8 billion, Nyppex said today in an e-mail. Facebook, the world’s largest social network, climbed 57 percent to about $65 billion. The valuations are based on transactions among institutional investors.

As the top venture-backed Web companies stay private longer, some early stakeholders and employees are selling to investment firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies. Demand for technology startup shares is also growing in the mutual-fund industry, where T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and Fidelity Investments are boosting their stakes.

LinkedIn Corp., the business-networking site that filed for an initial public offering in January, rose 43 percent in value to about $2.2 billion, while Web daily-deal site Groupon Inc. increased 19 percent to $5.6 billion. Twitter Inc., the microblogging service, rose 7.7 percent to $4 billion.

Nyppex, a Rye Brook, New York-based research and advisory services firm, tracks eight of the fastest-growing social-media startups, and produces reports for money managers, venture funds and corporations. Total valuations jumped to $86.1 billion in first quarter from $56.9 billion at the end of December, said Laurence Allen, managing member at Nyppex.
[...]
April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Initial public offerings. Big takeovers. Nerdy 20-somethings getting rich quickly. To borrow a phrase from an old Prince song, the markets are suddenly partying like it’s 1999 again.

The tech bubble is back. Facebook Inc. is commanding an enormous valuation. So are Groupon Inc., Twitter Inc. and LivingSocial.com. Even Rovio Mobile Oy, the small Finnish company behind the hit app Angry Birds, looks like it will soon be worth a fortune.

The trouble is, everyone still remembers how the bubble burst last time around.
The trouble is, I do not know where the author got that statement, but it's obviously false. Nobody remembers how the bubble burst, everybody is cheering the current (non-)recovery, and record (phantom-)earnings...

2011-06-19

300 IPOs in 2011, the most since 2000

Almost 300 companies have filed for IPOs in 2011, the most for any year during the same period since 2000. Yet another sign of Peak Optimism and Bubble 2.0: Home Prices Exploding in Silicon Valley Amid Millionaires
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- A surge in wealth from technology stock sales and initial public offerings is spilling into the Silicon Valley real estate market as newly rich workers bid up home values in suburban cities south of San Francisco.

The median price of single-family houses sold in Palo Alto, home of Facebook Inc., climbed 20 percent in May from a year earlier to $1.63 million, the biggest jump since 2008, according to preliminary figures from research company DataQuick. In Mountain View, the base of LinkedIn Corp., prices rose 3.1 percent to $957,500, the ninth year-over-year gain in 12 months.

The advances are defying a U.S. housing slump that has sent national values to an eight-year low. Share sales such as the IPO of LinkedIn -- which doubled on its first day of trading -- and an expected offering from Facebook will fuel a boom in some Silicon Valley cities into 2013, said Kenneth Rosen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

“It’s just the beginning of the story and I suspect we’ll see an explosion in the next couple years,” Rosen, chairman of the school’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, said in a telephone interview. “You’ve got young people with real money, and it’s not surprising they want to have a house.”

Almost 300 companies have filed for IPOs in 2011, the most for any year during the same period since 2000, and more than 10 percent of those are in California, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Silicon Valley is the U.S. hub for early-stage companies, receiving almost 40 percent of the $23.3 billion in venture-firm investments last year, estimates from the National Venture Capital Association show.

Pandora Media Inc. surged as much as 63 percent today as shares began trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The online radio company, based about 35 miles (56 kilometers) north of Silicon Valley in Oakland, raised $234.9 million in its IPO. Shares were priced at $16, above the expected $10 to $12 range.

The real estate gains in Silicon Valley, located primarily in the San Jose metropolitan area, are mostly occurring in towns where million-dollar values are already the norm. The median price in Cupertino gained 12 percent last month from May 2010 to $1.08 million, and values in Saratoga rose 4.7 percent to $1.62 million, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.
[...]
“People at startups have a lot of pent-up demand and tend to spend a portion of their new liquidity pretty quickly,” Siciliano said of his newfound competition for residential real estate. “They want to manifest their wealth.”

Past Silicon Valley property booms started in Palo Alto, adjacent to the Stanford campus, and Cupertino, home of Apple Inc., because of those institutional links and their coveted public schools, said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. Buyers from China have also been drawn by education resources in prestige valley locations and pushed up demand.
[...]
“The market seems to be returning to the crazy days and the question is whether or not it is a false recovery or a sustained recovery,” Scott said in an e-mail after viewing two more homes at $1.25 million or more, and declining to make any offers. “I suspect that it is a sustained recovery, given the planned liquidity events with social-networking companies.”
[...]
Shares granted to employees of public companies can’t be sold until 180 days after the IPO, under U.S. securities rules.

“You will probably see hundreds, if not thousands, of newly minted millionaires in the next two or three years,” said Steve Eskenazi, a tech investor in Hillsborough, north of Palo Alto, where the minimum lot size is a half acre (0.2 hectare). He sold his portion of an online advertising network to Sunnyvale-based Yahoo! Inc. in 2007.

“Most people in their 20s who find themselves millionaires feel it’s their inalienable right to buy real estate, and they’re typically not price sensitive,” Eskenazi said.

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, 27, bought a house this year in Palo Alto, said Larry Yu, a company spokesman. He declined to disclose details. Zuckerberg paid $7 million for a 5,000-square-foot (465-square-meter), seven-bedroom home in a “leafy and affluent” neighborhood, the San Jose Mercury News reported May 5, without saying where it got the information.
[...]
As more firms go public and workers cash in shares, real estate within 15 miles of the office will climb, said Rosen, who gave a presentation at Google Inc.’s Mountain View headquarters before the company’s 2004 IPO to educate employees on housing. Sales are usually concentrated in the “middle to upper end,” he said.

In Cupertino, about 12 miles from Palo Alto, a three- bedroom home listed for $908,000 got more than a dozen offers and sold for $950,000 on June 8, said Albert Kao, an agent at Giant Realty Inc. in the city. The prior owner, who bought the property in 2002, decided to sell after her children graduated from the public schools. She made a $290,000 profit before commissions, Kao said.

Lower-priced areas are still struggling with weak demand. In all of Santa Clara County, which encompasses some Silicon Valley cities, prices decreased 5.1 percent in May from a year earlier to $498,000 as distressed sales pulled values down in the broader market, DataQuick said in a report today. The drop was smaller than in the rest of the San Francisco Bay area, with the nine-county median in the region tumbling 9.3 percent.

Groupon Inc., an online coupon provider based in Chicago, filed for an initial share sale June 2 and is hiring engineers in California, according to its website. As early as March, Groupon was in talks with bankers about an IPO that would value the company at as much as $25 billion, two people familiar with the matter said at the time.

Zynga Inc. of San Francisco, the largest maker of games for Facebook and valued at $8.8 billion on SharesPost, may file for an IPO by the end of the month, a person with knowledge of the matter said June 3.

Those firms are among the companies that will help Silicon Valley grow by about 20,000 workers in 2011, said Levy, the California economist. Software publishers and Web portals accounted for 5,600 of the 13,400 jobs added in the year through April in the San Jose metropolitan area, according to the California Employment Development Department.
[...]

2011-03-11

Forbes World's Billionaires 2011

Forbes just published their yearly billionaires list for 2011. As expected with the massive transfer of wealth from the people to the well connected and happy few, the 2011 Billionaires List breaks two records: total number of listees (1,210) and combined wealth ($4.5 trillion). The BRIC countries are the big winners, thanks to massive inflationary policies in their countries, the commodities boom propelled by all the central banks, and I would also say, thanks to corruption which is extremely high in all these countries.

A few quotes:
This horde surpasses the gross domestic product of Germany, one of only six nations to have fewer billionaires this year. BRICs led the way: Brazil, Russia, India and China produced 108 of the 214 new names. [...] Before this year only the U.S. had ever produced more than 100 billionaires. China now has 115 and Russia 101.

Atop the heap is Mexico's Carlos Slim Helú, who added $20.5 billion to his fortune, more than any other billionaire. The telecom mogul, who gets 62% of his fortune from America Movil, is now worth $74 billion and has pulled far ahead of his two closest rivals. Bill Gates, No. 2, and Warren Buffett, No. 3, both added a more modest $3 billion to their piles and are now worth $56 billion and $50 billion, respectively. Gates, who now gets 70% of his fortune from investments outside of Microsoft, has actually been investing in the Mexican stock market and has holdings in Mexican Coke bottler Femsa and Grupo Televisa.
[...]
America's wealthiest still dominate the global ranks, but the U.S. is losing its grip. One in three billionaires is an American, down from nearly one out of two a decade ago. It has 10 more than last year but 56 fewer than its 2008 peak. The U.S. is adding new billionaires at a much slower pace; just 6% of its 413 billionaires are new this year compared with 47% of China's and 30% of Russia's.

Still there are plenty of inspiring newcomers who figured out clever ways to get rich. The most obvious example is the success of Facebook [...] has spawned six billionaires. Leading the group is Facebook's CEO Mark Zuckerberg, whose fortune jumped 238% to $13.5 billion in the past year. Also joining him in the world ranks are his cofounders Eduardo Saverin and Dustin Moskovitz, its first president Sean Parker and the Russian Internet investor Yuri Milner. Moskovitz, 26, is eight days younger than his former college roommate Zuckerberg, making him the world's youngest billionaire.

The frenzy among big investors for all things social pushed up private market values of online gaming outfit Zynga and online group-buying site Groupon, creating two more new billionaires, Mark Pincus (who taught people to farm on Facebook) and Eric Lefkofsky (who was Groupon's lead investor).

Other notable American newcomers include Do Won and Jin Sook Chang, the cofounders of Forever21, and Chris Cline, who owns 3 billion tons of coal reserves, mostly in Illinois.

Why do we spend so much time counting other people's money? Because these moguls have the power to shape our world. [...]

Where their inspiration leads, we will follow.

A note on methodology: More than 50 reporters in 13 countries worked on compiling the list this year, valuing individuals' public holdings, private companies, real estate, yachts, art and cash. Net worths were locked in using stock prices and exchange rates from Feb. 14.
For more details, and the specific bios and summary of the top 10 billionaires, please follow the link to Forbes.

2012-08-20

The Most Successful IPOs this Year?

Groupon is down by more than 80% from it's IPO price in roughly 10 months while Facebook is only down by 50% in about 3 months. 





Of course, you have been warned many times on this blog not to participate in the IPO of these two laggards, and while I am myself surprised by the speed at which the reality took place, it's the way of the markets to be difficult to predict.

In the markets, success if all relative: the gains of one are the losses of another.

Just as a reminder, let me explain what an IPO is: an IPO — or initial public offering — is the mean for current investors of a private company to get out of their investment by selling it to the broader public. It's also a way for a company to raise funds by selling stocks. So this means that the higher the IPO price, and better for these stakeholders, and the more overvalued the IPO price, the more profitable and successful the process has been. Whoever participates in an IPO and is not aware of these facts is a fool.

In the particular case of Facebook and Groupon, one can say that the underwriters managed to sell at an enormous premium, the share of those companies — remember, companies which do not make any profit. And hence, these are probably the most successful IPOs from the perspectives of the underwriters who gets a percentage of the IPO value, and the insiders, who sold at a massively inflated price.

2010-04-25

Is gold topping?

A strange phenomenon has been happening lately: not only everybody is bullish on gold, but gold is not making new highs in USD terms. This is a symptom of the deflation in the US, that people are confusing with high inflation (the "why?" question remains to be answered).

Interestingly, I have received two clues in the past few days that makes me believe that gold might be topping out:

1- An email from a bullion merchant in London offering discounts on gold. It's the first time I see this. Why would you ever do that? Gold is money, you can't give discount on money — except maybe when you badly need to hold to paper currency... Yet another sign of deflation and of gold sales being not as good as forecasted...


2- Adverts for gold coins on Facebook? Isn't Facebook the ultimate mainstream media?

2011-05-27

Financial Mania Has Yet To End

The past 30 years will be remembered by history books as the biggest financial and paper asset mania of history. While one could hope that after several major crashes of historical amplitude people would understand that they have to stay away from the markets, mass psychology and greed are still at their paroxysm.

Last week we've had the LinkedIn IPO and the company's PER which probably is among the highest ever reached during an IPO since the dotcom bubble burst.

You know you have a mania when:
  • The only thing that matters about a listed company is its ticker
  • When there's a glut of houses on the market after the biggest real estate bubble the US has ever known, and yet analysts explain that there's a shortage of houses and that boom times will be back.
  • You hear than an IPO will change the world
  • When you have companies trading at PERs of 1500, and yet, people deny there's a bubble.
See for yourself, a few quotes from various reports that should show just how much the mania is omni present and has gone wild:
May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Zillow Inc. wants to end the New York Stock Exchange’s monopoly on companies trading under a single letter.

Zillow, a real-estate website that filed last month to raise as much as $51.8 million by going public, disclosed this week that it applied for a Nasdaq Stock Market listing under the ticker Z. Assuming the application is approved, Zillow would be the first Nasdaq stock with a one-letter symbol.

“They’re doing it to attract attention, obviously,” said Bob Stovall, a managing director and global strategist at Wood Asset Management Inc. who has worked on Wall Street since 1953. “I wouldn’t even notice it or look it up,” he said, if Zillow used the traditional four letters for a symbol.

Nasdaq-listed companies have been able to trade under a single letter since July 2007, when the Securities and Exchange Commission changed the regulations that governed ticker symbols. Before then, stocks could only have one to three letters on the NYSE or the former American Stock Exchange, now NYSE Amex.

Another company preparing for an initial public offering, Pandora Media Inc., plans to list its shares on the NYSE under the letter P. The Internet-music service would become the first company to use that ticker since September 2002, when Phillips Petroleum Co. combined with Conoco Inc. to form ConocoPhillips.

The Z ticker has been available since March 2003, when Foot Locker Inc. adopted FL as its symbol. Z had previously been used by Foot Locker and three predecessor companies -- Venator Group Inc., Woolworth Corp. and F.W. Woolworth Co. -- since 1925.
[...]
Yahoo Daily Ticker — May the 24th:
[...] soon — the U.S. could face a housing shortage in the not-too-distant future. That's the line coming from one of the most sober, data-driven, non-ideological sources I know: Macroeconomic Advisers. The consulting firm is one of the best short-term forecasters out there, and distributes highly valuable measures of current quarter GDP as new inputs come in. It recently issued a report "The Long View on Housing — There's a Boom Uut There Somewhere," a summary of which can be seen here.

MA doesn't arrive at this conclusion based on blind faith, belief or intuition. Rather, it's a matter of numbers, supply and demand, and a look at historical trends. Times may be tough, but Americans continue to grow up, leave home, get married, form families and have children. At the end of last year, the U.S. had 130.8 million housing units, of which 112.5 million were occupied. Some 18.4 million were empty, leaving us with a vacancy rate of 14 percent.[...]
Yahoo Breakout — May the 20th — Forget LinkedIn, Glencore Will Change the World. The speaker Dan Dicker is a complete incompetent and over-bullish talking head. He doesn't understand the basics of accounting nor financial markets...

Yahoo Daily Ticker — May the 24th —  Calling Web 2.0 a ‘Bubble’ Is Insulting to the Term ‘Bubble’
First there was Renren, the "Facebook of China." Then came the LinkedIn offering last week. Today, Yandex, "the Google of Russia" went public in a deal that was wildly oversubscribed and saw the stock surge on its first day of trading.

These and other echoes of the 1990s tech boom are causing investors and pundits to wonder: Is this bubble 2.0?

"We are nowhere near a bubble," Henry says. "We are debasing the word 'bubble' by attaching it every time there's a price that's higher than we understand."

Despite the hoopla over Web 2.0 valuations — including for private companies like Facebook and Groupon — these companies are far more mature and profitable than the bulk of tech companies going public in 1999 and early 2000.

2011-08-25

Debt Aversion, Deflationary Mood Spreads to CEOs — 100 Business Leaders To Boycott Campaign Donations Until Congress Finds a Solution to the Growing Debt

In a turn of event that hyperinflationists will not believe to in the realm of the possible, it is now the CEOs of the biggest american firm to ask the US Government to find a solution to the growing debt issue, and they have decided to stop all campaign donations until this happens.

Of course, I do not believe that the politicians will really listen to these guys, or worse, to honor any pledge they would make — they won't do anything unless forced by the market. But it shows the growing debt aversion that grows with a negative social mood and creates a debt-deflationary cycle.
(Bloomberg) — Starbucks Chief Executive Officer Howard Schultz said more than 100 business leaders have joined his pledge to boycott U.S. political campaign donations. 
AOL CEO Tim Armstrong, J.C. Penney Co. CEO Myron Ullman, Whole Foods Market Inc. Co-CEO Walter Robb and others have agreed to accelerate hiring and halt campaign giving to incumbents in Washington until Congress finds a solution to the nation’s growing debt, Starbucks said in an e-mailed statement. 
Schultz is taking his campaign to the Internet and to Facebook today with the creation of Upward Spiral, “a platform for action inspired by the letter to America from Howard Schultz,” according to the website. 
Last week, Schultz, 58, sent an e-mail to fellow CEOs and business leaders urging them to boycott donating to political campaigns. The Starbucks head has previously addressed issues including the high price of coffee, which he says is fueled by market speculation.
It seems to me like after being so wrong for so long, Robert Prechter will be right in the end, with an amazing accuracy in the forecasts of the events as they unfold. He foresaw all this 10 years ago. Chapeau Bas!

2011-06-29

Zynga: Valued $15 billion, Trying to Raise $1 billion during the IPO?

I'd be curious to find out what the actual net profit number is, but otherwise, the price doesn't seem completely crazy compared to LinkedIn.

But a valuation above Activision Blizzard or EA makes raises some red flags nonetheless.
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Zynga Inc., the top developer of games for Facebook Inc.’s site, will file paperwork for an initial public offering today, said GreenCrest Capital Management LLC, which cited a “major investor” in the startup.

The company has chosen Morgan Stanley to be the lead underwriter of an offering that will raise more than $1 billion, said Nitsan Hargil, an analyst at GreenCrest, which focuses on closely held firms. He didn’t name the investor, saying only that it was an early backer of Zynga.
[...]
Zynga’s sales will reach about $1.5 billion this year, generating $500 million of net income, Hargil estimates. The company doesn’t need the money it will raise from selling shares, the New York-based analyst said.

The startup is valued at $15.4 billion on SharesPost Inc., an exchange that connects buyers and sellers of privately held companies. That would make it the most valuable U.S. game company, ahead of Activision Blizzard Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. Zynga recently hired former Electronic Arts Chief Operating Officer John Schappert for a senior role.

2012-02-11

Record High Bullish Sentiment — Buy-and-Hold is Dead, Buy High and Sell Higher as the New Paradigm

SentimenTrader has posted this nice chart confirming what you've been reading on this blog for the past couple of weeks: that sentiment is reaching an extreme that is almost historical, while broader market indices are still below their levels of April 2011, and 2007.

Quote from SentimenTrader:
The chart below shows the Bull Ratio for all the index funds.  This is the total assets in the long funds for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA and Russell 2000 divided by the assets in the inverse funds for those same indexes.
As of Monday, there was $4 invested in the long funds for every $1 invested in the inverse funds.  The only other time since 2004 that matched this level was May 2, 2011. 
As of Wednesday, total assets invested in the inverse funds at the Rydex family fell to $291 million.  That ties it for the lowest all-time, along with January 30, 2001 and May 2, 2011.  Both dates were good times to own those funds. 
The stock Mania Era is still well entrenched, with the IPO of Facebook making so much noise for a company that — even though provides a great social web site — doesn't seem to be making any profits, and which aims for a valuation of $100 billion.

See some other signs of the mania from the following web ads and books:

An add suggesting that with 1 to 5 hours of spare time, one could aims for $5000+ profits.

It's so simple even some line like me without 
any trading experience can make 
tons of profits during my lunch break.



Buy High, Sell Higher — if this isn't a sign of complete mania... 

2011-08-04

Just Returned From China

I just landed in Singapore literally less than an hour ago from Beijing — there's a lot to tell about the action in the markets during my absence, and about China.

Sorry for the lack of updates during the trip — it appears that the Great Firewall of China is blocking almost everything outside of the country. Bigger names that I found I could never access: Facebook, YouTube, LinkedIn, Google.com, Blogger/Blogspot, Wordpress, virtually any blog, and any social network...

It's about midnight in Singapore, so posting should resume tomorrow.

2011-01-17

Market Sentiment: U.S. stocks rose for a seventh straight week, the longest rally since May 2007

Yet another stone to the edifice of irrational exuberance and extreme overbullishness: Bloomberg is reporting that the equity markets just experienced the longest rally since May 2007 and the vocabulary they are using is quite telling.

Moreover, short selling has reached a one year low, which by itself is not a multi-year extreme, but is still quite noteworthy as we are at a 30-month high.
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a seventh straight week, the longest rally since May 2007, buoyed by optimism about corporate earnings and European efforts to control the region’s debt crisis.
[...]
“We have an environment that’s supportive for stocks,” said Warren Koontz, head of U.S. large-cap value stocks at Loomis Sayles & Co. in Boston, which manages $150 billion. “The economy is on a much more solid upward trajectory.”
 Why is that? Maybe unemployment declining? Taxes falling? Sovereign insolvency issues resolving? Of course not. Actually, it's quite the opposite, as all the economic figures are now showing contraction. This is just rationalizing the action on the equity market, nothing more.

The S&P 500 rallied after European actions to bolster the region’s sovereign-bailout fund and Portugal’s sale of government debt. The start of the U.S. earnings season helped overshadow economic data showing initial jobless claims rose more than estimated in the first week of the year and lower- than-forecast retail sales in December.

Bets against stocks in the S&P 500 Index fell to a one-year low as short sellers reduced speculation that technology and telephone stocks will decline. Short interest on the benchmark gauge dropped to 6.87 billion shares, or 3.9 percent of shares available for trading, as of Dec. 31, down 5.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data compiled by U.S. exchanges and Bloomberg. It was the third straight period that S&P 500 short selling fell.
[...]
“We’re juggling the fundamental economic prospects with the momentum in the equity market,” said George Feiger, chief executive offer of Contango Capital Advisors Inc., a San Francisco-based wealth management firm with about $4 billion in assets. “The momentum is pushing for further rises in equity prices, but we remain cautious because we don’t believe there’s a lot of justification for further gains.”
 This is a good analysis. There are no justifications for the market to go higher, except momentum.

Reminder:
In just within one month, all the stars have aligned and we now have the perfect set up for a major major top followed by a sharp decline which probably will be even more dramatic than what we experienced in 2008. See for yourself the previous "achievements" of Mr Market:
  1. No New Normal Next Year Seen by Strategists Predicting 11% Gain in S&P 500
  2. Hedge Funds Raise Commodity Gain Bets to 4-Year High
  3. Put Call Ratio: Everyone’s Betting On The Bull
  4. Volatility is back to April 2010 levels
  5. Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio At Highest Since Dot Com Collapse
  6. US CEOs Most Optimistic since 2006
  7. Extreme bullishness in emerging countries, money pouring into stocks at the fastest pace since 2007, biggest rally in 16 years
  8. SentimentTrader.com: Equity Hedging Index is at a new record low
  9. Trading of U.S. stock options soared to the second-highest level in nearly four decades of history
  10. Please also note that the put/call ratio is dangerously approaching the historically low level of April 2010
  11. Volatility as measured by the VIX falls back to April 2007 levels
  12. Best time to buy stock in decades (yes, there's an ending 's' at decades)
  13. Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt. chairman: "2011, Year of the USA"
  14. Market Sentiment: Margin Debt Soars to Highest Levels Since September 2008
  15. Market sentiment: crude oil bets reach a four-year high
  16. We're back in good old 2000s, with Facebook valued 100 times earnings.

2012-05-21

Equities Market — Use Extreme Caution if You're Trying to Bottom Fish

People looking for the bottom so far:
I would cover my shorts in the next 10 days, because I think the market is very close to approaching an intermediate low from which we will rebound. - on CNBC 
For the decline to be able to resume in a sustainable manner, a short term bounce from here should be expected as early as this Friday's session in order to clear some of the fear (there isn't much yet, as the VIX is still at about 25) and oversold situation of the markets. 
I'm contemplating the idea of going long the ES for a few days, with a very tight stop.
At present we observe a strong surge in put buying, so some fear has returned. However, the current put buying extremes are not yet as pronounced as to make a near term low highly probable. In all likelihood the 200-day moving average will be tested at a minimum – incidentally this is also a region where strong lateral support exists. To be sure, this level is not too far away.

And yet, we would recommend not to be too hasty with trying to catch this particular falling knife. We have just experienced how extraordinarily stretched bearish sentiment can become in the gold sector, which has fallen far below the point where we initially thought it might find support. Something similar could also happen to the broader market.
Occasionally, markets can fall heavily even when they are already oversold and bullish sentiment has already evaporated, i.e. conditions similar to today. We therefore worry that we have made a mistake in taking profits on our bearish holdings and that we won't get the opportunity to re-establish those positions on a short term bounce. We note this worry today as the Facebook IPO yesterday was seen as a "faltering start" according to the front page of the FT. 
[...] Markets appear to be oversold and bullish sentiment has evaporated during the recent decline. We have taken profits on our bearish holdings and we think there may well be a bounce in the next week or two. We think that the best strategy in the next few weeks is to use any bounce to re-establish our bearish holdings.
Over the past 10 days, the average of those two figures is 73%, meaning about 73% of the points gained or lost in the component stocks were lost, and about 73% of the volume flowed into issues down on the day. There have been four other days that match or exceed this reading – 7/22/02, 10/9/08, 7/2/10 and 8/4/11. They were each within days of vicious market bounces.


The Market Climate is characterized by unfavorable valuations, unfavorable market action, and a continued army of hostile syndromes that have historically been associated with unusually steep market losses over the following 6-18 month period. On a very short horizon, the market appears significantly compressed and open to a standard "fast, furious, prone-to-failure" bout of short covering in order to clear that condition. The problem here is that economic conditions are beginning to surprise significantly on the downside (see last week's Philly Fed report), and credit strains are rapidly increasing in Europe. So barring some monetary intervention, shorts may not be particularly inclined to cover much here. In that event, the failure of the market to provide a relief advance could produce something of a run for the exits as managers holding high-beta positions cry "Uncle!" into a market that isn't particularly willing to absorb those positions without a significant discount. For that reason, I have no particular view about short-term market direction, except that it is likely to be a roller-coaster of sorts. Hold on to your hat.
  • Tiho, on the ShortSideOfLong blog writes:
I want to buy S&P 500 Calls soon. I am still waiting for signs of a bottom in the equity market sell off. Short term capitulation could be near, followed by a rally - even a very powerful one. Eventually, as we recover weeks or months from now, I want to short stocks.
Carl Futia
I think the end of the drop from 1419.75 is imminent.
What makes me doubt we've reached the real bottom is:

  • Too many people seem to be bottom calling, even though they are very smart and worth to follow investors.
  • The equity PC ratio has jumped to an extremely high level, but the VIX remains at the same time extremely low. This could be a major non-confirmation factor.