Nigel Farage: The euro Titanic has now hit the iceberg

Very interesting speech from Nigel Farage earlier today at the European Parliament, available on YouTube. The interesting part is how this bailout of Spain will actually further weaken Italy, which is already on the brink of collapse and a confirmation of something we had previously discussed on this blog: a Greece default of Euro-exit would make the ECB bankrupt.

Here's the transcript, with my highlights:

"Another one bites the dust. Country number four, Spain, gets bailed out and we all of course know that it won't be the last. Though I wondered over the weekend whether perhaps I was missing something, because when the Spanish prime minister Mr Rajoy got up, he said that this bailout shows what a success the eurozone has been.

And I thought, well, having listened to him over the previous couple of weeks telling us that there would not be a bailout, I got the feeling after all his twists and turns he's just about the most incompetent leader in the whole of Europe, and that's saying something, because there is pretty stiff competition. 

Indeed, every single prediction of yours, Mr Barroso, has been wrong, and dear old Herman Van Rompuy, well he's done a runner hasn't he. Because the last time he was here, he told us we had turned the corner, that the euro crisis was over and he hasn't bothered to come back and see us. 

I remember being here ten years ago, hearing the launch of the Lisbon Agenda. We were told that with the euro, by 2010 we would have full employment and indeed that Europe would be the competitive and dynamic powerhouse of the world. By any objective criteria the Euro has failed, and in fact there is a looming, impending disaster. 

You know, this deal makes things worse not better. A hundred billion [euro] is put up for the Spanish banking system, and 20 per cent of that money has to come from Italy. And under the deal the Italians have to lend to the Spanish banks at 3 per cent but to get that money they have to borrow on the markets at 7 per cent. It's genius isn't it. It really is brilliant. 

So what we are doing with this package is we are actually driving countries like Italy towards needing to be bailed out themselves.

In addition to that, we put a further 10 per cent on Spanish national debt and I tell you, any banking analyst will tell you, 100 billion does not solve the Spanish banking problem, it would need to be more like 400 billion. 

And with Greece teetering on the edge of Euro withdrawal, the real elephant in the room is that once Greece leaves, the ECB, the European Central Bank is bust. It's gone. It has 444 billion euros worth of exposure to the bailed-out countries and to rectify that you'll need to have a cash call from Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy. You couldn't make it up could you! It is total and utter failure. This ship, the euro Titanic has now hit the iceberg and sadly there simply aren't enough life boats."

GRE Greece ETF Update and Charting the PIIGS Main Equity Indices [UPDATE]

The GRE Greece ETF is now trading at below 1.00€ (low of 0.985€) meaning that from the peak of about 14.00€, the drop has been more than 90%. One could wonder how much lower it can go.

Here's the details about the ETF, as captured from the French prospectus of the fund (click for larger image):

Conclusion: there's still room for further drop, as the banking sector still represents 33% of the index. 

[Update: initiated a small position on the ETF, bought at 0.985€ per share]

My friend SS has been kind enough to provide me on demand many charts and market data, and here's what he sent me on request yesternight: the charts of the main index of each of the PIIGS countries:

Greece: Top at 5346, currently trading at 553. This is a drop of 90%from peak. And it's a stock index of the 20 largest Greek capitalizations. 

Portugal: Top at 13729, currently trading at 4870. This is a drop of 65%. Same comment, this is the an index made of the largest companies in Portugal and my guess is that we're far from the bottom.

Ireland: Top at 10,000 bottom at 2,000 (drop of 80%) currently trading at 3,000. This is still a drop of 70% and my guess is that we're far from the bottom. 

Spain: Top at 16,000 currently trading at 6,500. This is a drop of 65%. My guess is that we're far from the bottom

Italy: Top of 44,000 currently trading at 13,000. This is a drop of 70%. And my guess is that we're far from the bottom

Violence Breaks in Italy — Italy on maximum alert for terrorism after recent attacks targeting the tax-collection agency Equitalia

Nothing to add to the Bloomberg report except that Spain and Italy are approaching fast the wall, and no one seems to care much in equity and forex markets.

(Bloomberg) May 13, 2012 — Italy is on maximum alert for terrorism after recent attacks targeting the tax-collection agency Equitalia and the shooting of Ansaldo Nucleare Chief Executive Officer Roberto Adinolfi, la Repubblica reported, citing Interior Minister Anna Maria Cancellieri. 

Thirty anarchists are the focus of investigators and the army is committed to defending vulnerable targets, Cancellieri told Repubblica. Her comments come after two Molotov cocktails were placed outside Equitalia’s headquarters in Livorno, Italy yesterday, with one exploding, Repubblica reported. 

That follows the discovery of a parcel bomb at Equitalia’s Rome headquarters on May 11, news service Ansa reported. Adinolfi was shot in the legs by two assailants on a scooter in Genoa on May 7, Repubblica reported then, describing the injury as non life-threatening.

Extremes on the Rise across All European Countries — Now Italy Talks About Euro-Exit

1- Extremes are on the rise everywhere in Europe. Ironically, the UE was founded in order to unite European countries and stop the wars, but now, political fools trying to keep it alive are actually making extremism rise in Europe, and will most likely be the cause for coming wars.

2- Interestingly, Euro-exit debate is now reaching Italy.

(Bloomberg) May 10, 2012 — Italians should consider exiting the euro amid rising public debt and no signs of economic recovery, said Beppe Grillo, a comedian-turned-politician opposed to Prime Minister Mario Monti’s austerity measures.
“Let’s face the issue, it can’t be a taboo,” Grillo, 63, said in an interview yesterday after his Internet-based political movement emerged as the third-biggest party in local elections this week. “As debt rises, spending isn’t under control, businesses close down, labor cost is up, salaries are down and we don’t even have the power of bargaining our debt.”
His 5 Star Movement, founded in October 2009, is the latest grouping to profit from rising anger in Europe over tax increases, budget cuts and joblessness amid the sovereign debt crisis.  [...]
Italy’s economy, which has trailed euro-area growth for more than a decade, is in its fourth recession since the single currency was introduced and will contract 1.2 percent this year, according to the government, which is implementing 20 billion euros ($25.9 billion) in austerity measures. Costs of servicing a debt of 1.9 trillion euros will climb to 5.3 percent of gross domestic product this year from 4.9 percent in 2011, government estimates show.

The Rise of the Fascist European Union

Since the markets topped back in 2007-2008, democracy has been losing ground everywhere in the Western world, but in Europe it's been probably worse than anywhere else.

Don't get me wrong, the most fascist country for now is the US, and they have been on the track since the late 1990s. But the US fascists have followed the the rule of law: law makers and government officials have embraced those ideas, and voted them through, and the Supreme Court has been basically shut down. In Europe, it's lawlessness and lies that are bringing the fascist ideas and actions, in complete disregard of the rule of law and democracy.

Here's a short list of the illegal and anti-democratic actions so far:

• Ireland: Irish people forced to bailout the European banks
• Greece: Prime Minister, democratically elected replaced by a non-elected Prime Minister
• Italy: Mario Monti, non-elected technocrat replaced the democratically elected Berlusconi as Prime Minister.
• ECB: buying sovereign bonds in complete illegality

Well, things have made another nasty and dangerous turn with the new "Greek Bailout" plan, which is nothing but a bailout of the French and German banks who are creditors to Greece, and a complete pillage of Greece:

• Greece Needs New Constitutional Provision Imposed by the Troika

Eurogroup Statement of conditions placed on Greece:

The Eurogroup also welcomes Greece's intention to put in place a mechanism that allows better tracing and monitoring of the official borrowing and internally-generated funds destined to service Greece's debt by, under monitoring of the troika, paying an amount corresponding to the coming quarter's debt service directly to a segregated account of Greece's paying agent.

Finally, the Eurogroup in this context welcomes the intention of the Greek authorities to introduce over the next two months in the Greek legal framework a provision ensuring that priority is granted to debt servicing payments. This provision will be introduced in the Greek constitution as soon as possible. ....

• Troika Demands 38 New Changes in Greek Tax, Spending and Wage Policies in Next 6 Days

 And

• Growing Air of Concern in Greece Over New Bailout.

In the fine print of the 400-plus-page document — which Parliament members had a weekend to read and sign — Greece relinquished fundamental parts of its sovereignty to its foreign lenders, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

“This is the first time ever that a European and probably an O.E.C.D. state abdicates its rights of immunity over all its assets to its lenders,” said Louka Katseli, an independent member of Parliament who previously represented the Socialist Party, using the abbreviation for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. She was one of several independents who joined 43 lawmakers from the two largest parties in voting against the loan agreement.

Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal, and that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors.

In the meantime, the UE officials are still asking for more lawlessness:

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank should participate in efforts to reduce Greece’s debt, said Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker, who leads the group of euro- area finance ministers.

“The ECB must look, within the framework of its independence, what sort of contribution it can make to the debt reduction of Greece,” Juncker told reporters in Brussels today. “I hope it will find something.”

And the ECB is obliging — see also Japan and the Myth of Independent Central Banks:

Draghi’s $158 Billion Free Lunch to Boost EU Bank Profits 

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Banks are benefiting from a European Central Bank subsidy that could reach 120 billion euros ($158 billion), enough to pay every bonus at financial firms in London for the next 24 years at today’s levels. 

Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, BNP Paribas SA and Societe Generale SA are among more than 500 banks that took 489 billion euros of three-year loans from the Frankfurt-based ECB at a December auction. The loans currently carry a 1 percent annual interest rate, less than a quarter of the 4.3 percent average yield on euro-denominated senior unsecured bank debt of all maturities in the past year, according to Commerzbank AG. 

With borrowing estimated to hit a record 1.2 trillion euros after a second auction later this month, banks may save 120 billion euros over three years. That could boost 2012 profit by about 10 percent for lenders in Italy and Spain, according to estimates by Morgan Stanley.  

“This is very much a free lunch,” said Arnd Schaefer, an economist at WestLB AG in Dusseldorf, Germany. “Banks can get money for just 1 percent and then lend it on for much more. That’s pretty good.”          

There's much more in the report, so you can read it in it's entirety if you're interested in what the ECB is doing.

And also, this other report about the ECB changing the rules of bond, creating subordinate versus senior level bonds on the very same instrument, depending on who is holding it:

Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank’s plan to shield its Greek bond holdings from a restructuring may hurt private investors while paving the way for debt insurance contracts to be triggered.

The ECB will exchange its Greek debt for new bonds with an identical structure and nominal value, though they’ll be exempt from so-called collective action clauses the government is reportedly planning. That implies senior status for the ECB over other investors, according to UBS AG, and the use of CACs may lead to credit-default swaps protecting $3.2 billion of Greek bonds being tripped.

“It may appear that the ECB is receiving preferential treatment, raising questions about whether the ECB is senior to private-sector bondholders,” according to Chris Walker, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS, the world’s third-biggest currency trader. “If a coercive default does indeed eventually take place then a CDS event seems very likely with all the negative consequences for risk appetite that may bring.” 

Jim Grant Interviewed on Bloomberg TV Discusses the ECB the EU Mess

Jim Grant was interviewed on Bloomberg TV yesterday, Nov the 11th. Unfortunately, the video on Bloomberg.com is broken. Luckily, the video is also available on YouTube, but embedding is disabled.

ZeroHedge has done a good job at summarizing the interview:
On the three thread by which the world currently hangs:

i) by the financial probity of Italy

ii) by the determination of Greece to implement austerity measures

iii) and by the responsibility of our money spinning central bankers

"These are very slender threads indeed."

On what the ECB will do:

The ECB has expanded its balance sheet mightily under Trichet. We have a new leader and we have a new imperative. I dare say Europe is going to print money.

On central bank monetization and its implications:

The Italian yields did not fall on their own. It raises questions of overall integrity of market prices. In the US the Fed has nationalized the yield curve. In Europe much the same is going on: the SNB is expanding its balance sheet at astonishing rates of speed. The world over there is seeing immense money printing and there is a huge race to debase on the behalf of the sponsors of paper money.

Central banks are insolvent:

The ECB has a ratio of non-AAA rated assets to equity of 14 to 1. What the ECB has been doing is stepping in where private money fears to tread. In the private sector we call the heading for trouble... The New York Fed is leveraged 100 to one.

And the kicker analogy which is absolutely spot on:

The ECB is now implementing the MF Global trade.

He also discusses:

• Immense money printing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB)
• The farmland price bubble in the US: everybody is chasing it, the income yield of about 2.5%, which is at the lowest of the past 40-50 years. In the late 80s, at the bottom, they were yielding 7-8% and trading for about 10% of the current value.

I would add that once must be mad to buy farmland which is such an illiquid asset and which will be prone to all the government manipulation and extortion as soon as the second leg of the Greater Depression settles in, with confiscations, price fixings etc.

Luxury Southern European Villas Prices Down 30% to 50% From Peak

The WSJ reports:

Spain, Portugal, Greece and, to a lesser extent, Italy, all immersed in the European debt crisis, are experiencing second-home property price declines. The countries' housing markets have been battered by escalating debts, recent austerity measures and deep uncertainty in the financial markets. A glut of new homes built in boom times in many popular vacation areas is making matters worse, as rental demand falls and financing requirements become stiffer. As a result, asking prices for second homes have fallen 15% to 30% in recent months. In less fashionable areas, prices for some properties are as much as half off what they were two years ago. 

"Price expectations have finally adjusted to the new reality. People are finally accepting that the game has changed," says Joachim Wrang Widen, director of Christie's International Real Estate in Europe.

Obviously, perma-bull talking heads and journalists present these facts with a bullish and positive view: it's time to buy! And you'll find many "investors" story about how great the opportunity is, once the price has been slashed by 18%. Do not listen to these! Fortunes will be wiped out before we hit the real bottom, somewhere 70 to 90% lower than where we are today.

It took a long time for the shift in mentally to happen, but things will go accelerating from here. Denial is about to end in these countries, and losses to be realized. In which cases, the banking sector, already against the wall, might finally collapse.

Germany and China Refuse To Bailout Greece By Taking The Losses

The Germans and the Chinese do not want to buy insolvent nations debt. And who could blame them for that? Only politically driven liars such as Geithner and Trichet could come up with such silly ideas...

Bloomberg News - Sep 13, 2011 — China shouldn’t buy bonds issued by individual euro-area countries because their leaders and the European Central Bank are in disarray, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to China’s central bank. 

“China has to wait until it can see a clearer road map by euro countries for solving sovereign-debt problems,” Yu, who is based in Beijing, said in e-mailed comments today. The nation is not a lender of last resort for “troubled countries,” he added.

Bloomberg News - Sep 14, 2011— Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, facing calls to widen support for indebted European countries, signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and open markets rather than rely on China to bail out the world economy. 

“Countries must first put their own houses in order,” Wen said today at the World Economic Forum in the Chinese city of Dalian. “Developed countries must take responsible fiscal and monetary policies. What is most important now is to prevent the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.” 

China can best contribute to the global economic recovery by ensuring steady growth at home, Wen said, calling on the European Union and U.S. to allow more Chinese investment in return.

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Germany’s top two finance officials rejected using the European Central Bank to boost the euro-area rescue fund’s firepower, rebuffing a suggestion by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.[...]
“We don’t think that real economic and social problems can be solved by means of monetary policy,” said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, speaking alongside Weidmann after the meeting of EU finance ministers and central bank governors. “That has never been the European model and it won’t be.” 

Neither German policy maker ruled out leveraging the backstop’s lending capacity, saying the feasibility of the idea depends on how it’s done. It wouldn’t be acceptable to leave the ECB with the risks from such an operation, said Weidmann.

Now the real question is: when will the markets and the politicians finally realize that there will be easy solution, and that Greece will default (first) and many many other sovereigns will follow? The sooner these uncertainties are resolved, the sooner the recovery can start.