Showing posts with label Iceland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iceland. Show all posts

2012-05-31

Iceland Growing It's Real Estate Bubble Just 3 Years After Their Complete Economic and Financial Collapse


Who could have guessed that people's more so short sighted and their memory so close to a goldfish's?
(Bloomberg) May 30, 2012 — Iceland’s crisis-management policies are creating the island’s next property bubble less than four years after its banking meltdown threw the economy into its worst recession. 
Prices for new homes touched a record last quarter, having surged 40.1 percent since the final three months of 2010, according to estimates by the National Registry of Iceland in Reykjavik. Average house prices have risen 11.3 percent since the market bottomed at the end of 2009, according to central bank data at the end of the first quarter. 
[...] “Last year, investors finally realized that the capital controls aren’t going anywhere any time soon,” Jonsson said. “That has led to a change in investors perspective, and they’re now moving in greater numbers into longer assets and snapping up properties.”
Another unintended consequence of stupid government actions.
An average apartment cost about 28 million kronur in May, the National Registry of Iceland estimates. That compares with 12.4 million kronur in 2001. The average Icelandic household earned about 4.4 million kronur in 2011, according to Statistics Iceland.
“The exorbitant prices in the housing market, so early after the collapse of the Icelandic economy, are quite shocking,” said Finnur Eiriksson, a computer scientist living in Reykjavik. “I’ve decided to stay in the rental market for some time to come. For anyone that has been shopping around, the drop in property prices after 2008 hasn’t been significant enough.”
Well, looks like Finnur is sport on!

2011-06-26

And You Think You Can Trust Greece or the IMF?

Courtesy of Yahoo Finance, here's a nice summary of the events that led to the probable collapse of Greece in the next few weeks or months, depending on how far the politics manage to kick the can:
It all started in June 2009. On June 23, Greece's finance minister Yannis Papathanassiou stated: 'The rate of growth for the Greek economy in 2009 is expected to slow more than forecasted. Specifically, it will range around zero and only return to growth in 2010.' The disclosed budget deficit at the time was $3.1 billion.

On October 22, 2009, Fitch lowered Greece's rating from A to A-. On October 30, Moody's placed Greece's A1 rating on review for a possible downgrade. So far it all sounds pretty innocent. The rest of the story is described simply in headlines:

December 17, 2009: 'Greek woes hit Euro'

December 21 2009: 'ECB member says no bailouts for Greece'

January 18 2010: 'Two EU ministers: No bailout for Greece'

January 19 2010: 'Greece tackles statistics trouble' (hmm, the numbers just didn't add up despite all the financial alchemy)

February 9, 2010: 'Bulls run on Greece news' (over rumors about a bailout)

February 11, 2010: 'European Union throws a big fat Greek bailout'

February 22, 2010: 'Debtors bet Greece won't spill'

February 27, 2010: 'Athens, Berlin spar as bailout takes shape (talks about $41 billion)

March 4, 2010: 'Is Greece's crisis over?'

April 24, 2010: 'Greece asks for $60 billion bailout'

April 27, 2010: 'Greece contagion fears unfounded'

May 3, 2010: 'Greece gets $146 billion rescue'

May 3, 2010: 'Wall Street up sharply on data, Greece package'

May 8, 2010: 'Stocks tumble on faulty quotes, Greek concerns'

June 14, 2010: 'Greece's government bond ratings cut to junk by Moody's

July 5, 2010: 'Greece upbeat on bid to exit from crisis'

December 17, 2010: 'IMF approves $3.3 billion for Greece amid impressive fiscal adjustment'
The question is: With such a great track record of incompetence, lies and deception, will you still trust these guys and their abilities?

2011-04-13

Irish Gov Stabs their People in the Back while the Icelandic Thrive...

It is ironic how the Irish government decided to stab their people in the back, and take their money to bailout not their own banks, but all the banks in the Eurozone who lent money to these insolvent banks.

Iceland is doing so much better now that they have defaulted and, even more ironic, what ignorant analysts and economists believe is an inconvenient for the government is actually a blessing for the people: the fact that the government from Iceland cannot borrow on the markets is a very very positive side effect of this default, and I do hope that once the western civilisation as we know it has defaulted on their debt — no country is solvent except maybe Germany — they will introduce constitutional laws to prevent governments from running deficits and borrowing money — as Germany did a couple years ago.

Irish Bow to Trichet on Bondholders as Rescue Hits $142 Billion
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland yielded to the European Central Bank to protect bondholders even as its bailout bill for the region’s worst banking crisis moved to as much as 100 billion euros ($142 billion) after stress tests.

The ECB in Frankfurt was “solidly opposed” to imposing losses on investors in senior bank debt, Finance Minister Michael Noonan told broadcaster RTE today. The ECB agreed to provide “ongoing” funding for the banks, he said.

Ireland agreed yesterday to inject as much as 24 billion euros into four banks, while leaving bondholders untouched. The government already funneled 46.3 billion euros into the financial system and set up an agency that paid more than 30 billion euros to assume risky property loans. The total equates to about two-thirds the size of the Irish economy.

“The government’s position is very clear: It doesn’t want to take action on senior bondholders for the four banks that are going forward,” said Matthew Elderfield, head of regulation at the central bank, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It recognizes that, on balance, that if you want to have these viable banks able to return to the market that would hurt their capacity to do that.”

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services today cut Ireland one notch to BBB+ from A-, though revised its outlook to stable.
[...]
As recently as March 28, Agriculture Minister Simon Coveney said the government planned to impose losses on senior bondholders in the banks to cut the costs of its bailout.

“Taking all of the losses of the banking system and putting them on the balance sheet of the government doesn’t make sense,” Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said today in an interview from Cernobbio, Italy, with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” “Eventually, the back of the government will be broken.”
[...]
“Rather than go after over 20 billion euros in unguaranteed bonds, the government is making ordinary citizens bear the burden of this debt,” Gerry Adams, leader of nationalist party Sinn Fein, said in statement today. “Rather than act in the interests of the Irish people they are acting in the interest of the banks.”
[...]
The decision not to seek burden-sharing with senior bondholders “is a recognition of reality that Ireland is depending on continued funding for its banks from the ECB, which is setting the rules,” said Dermot O’Leary, chief economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers.
Icelanders Reject British, Dutch Depositor Bill a 2nd Time
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Icelanders rejected a depositor claims accord with the U.K. and Netherlands for a second time in as many years as voters signaled they don’t want their tax funds to cover foreign losses caused by a private bank.
[...]
The bill, which set the terms for covering the depositor losses, was rejected by President Olafur R. Grimsson in February after being passed by a two-thirds majority in parliament.

“Nowhere does it say that Iceland is legally obliged to pay for this ridiculous Landsbanki adventure,” said Stefan Gunnarsson, a shop assistant in downtown Reykjavik. “If a court finds that we are legally responsible, so be it. Until then: No thanks.”

Grimsson said in a Feb. 23 interview he rejected the accord because Iceland’s legal obligation to pay is “unclear,” adding the matter shows that European banking laws haven’t been “thoroughly thought out.” The referendum let the people decide “whether private citizens, taxpayers, should be obliged to repay the losses created by a private bank,” he said then.

The latest Icesave accord would cost the state about 47 billion kronur ($419 million), while the remaining debt will be covered using the proceeds of Landsbanki assets, the negotiating committee representing Iceland said in December. Britain is lending Iceland 2.35 billion pounds ($3.85 billion) to cover the depositor losses, while the Netherlands is lending 1.3 billion euros ($1.9 billion).
[...]
Gunnarsson said the referendum is “a wakeup call for the citizens in other countries.”

“They’ll realize that there’s no fairness in pushing bank losses onto taxpayers when things go sour, but pocketing the gains when everything is going well,” Gunnarsson said. “A big fat ‘no’ from Iceland will drive that point home.”

Failure to resolve Icesave through a referendum “could easily muddy the waters,” central bank Governor Mar Gudmundsson said in a speech on April 7. A no vote “would impede foreign borrowing and delay capital account liberalization, although it is not clear how strong or persistent these effects would be.”
[...]
Iceland has relied on a $4.6 billion bailout led by the International Monetary Fund and on capital controls to prevent a sell-off of the krona. The caps, which the central bank estimates are stopping investors from selling about $3.6 billion in krona assets, have allowed the trade surplus to support the exchange rate and limit import price gains. The central bank has cut rates 15 times in two years as inflation eased to within the bank’s 2.5 percent target.
[...]
Icelanders Reject Depositor Bill, Forcing Year-Long Court Fight
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- “What is clear is that there will be a downgrade from Moody’s and perhaps Standard & Poor’s,” said Asgeir Jonsson, an economist at Reykjavik-based asset manager Gamma. “This will force the government to postpone its plans to enter the international bond markets.”

The European Free Trade Association’s Surveillance Authority in May last year started infringement proceedings against Iceland under its obligation to cover all depositor claims. Those proceedings, which had been shelved during Iceland’s parliamentary handling of Icesave, will now be resumed, said Sigurdur Lindal, a law professor at the University of Iceland.

“A ruling from the EFTA Court isn’t formally binding on Icelandic authorities, although it does set a precedent,” Lindal said in a phone interview. “The U.K. and the Netherlands will likely claim that Iceland discriminated against depositors depending on nationality. However, that matter is not in any way clear cut.”

Grimsson said the referendum “enabled the nation to regain its democratic self-confidence and to express sovereign authority in its own affairs,” in a speech yesterday. Three days after his veto, he said he rejected the accord because Iceland’s legal obligation to pay is “unclear,” adding the matter shows that European banking laws haven’t been “thoroughly thought out.”

The result of the Icesave referendum shows most voters agree. [...]