Portfolio Update: Long Again

I've reopened my long EUR.USD, silver, gold positions during the US trading day on Friday, and also went long the WTI. Stops are once again in place, however, I'm still hoping not to be kicked out of my positions by crazy intraday volatility...


pms said...

Good timing considering what is happening over the weekend ! Maybe this will give a pause in the decline and an upward push to the markets. If the pattern repeats itself, next downard push will come from either a substantial deterioation in spain og rather Italy entering the bailout speculation fase - that is my take but I have no idea about timing ....damn the timing thing is the worst! peter

pej said...

Hi Peter,

The timing thing is indeed the most difficult thing, and it's actually quite impossible to be sure you're right. Indeed, the best way I've found to know whether a trade will be making money or losing, is to introspect myself as I'm submitting my trade: am I scared? or am I being greedy? When scared, chances are, it's the right time to buy/sell. When greedy, chances are, you're going to lose money. In both cases, you need to have stops in order to avoid a disastrous outcome (learnt from years of experience).

The second best advice I can give you is: "The news do not drive the markets, the markets drive the news."

See for example today's case: When markets open in Europe and the US, depending on whether the jump or dive, you will see:

- Markets jump on optimism about the Spanish banks bailout and confidence Europe will solve their issues
- Markets slide on fear that the Spanish bailout is not enough and contagion will spread to Italy.