Peak Over-Confidence and Denial in Australia Confirms Economic Collapse Has Begun

Here are a couple of Bloomberg reports showing just how much Australian policy makers are in denial and plain incompetents (or liars?). From a contrarian perspective, this confirms to me that their bubble-economy has already began its bust is now confirmed. It will soon be time to short their equities and the infamous AUD, THE bubble currency.

Ironically, the public is not a fool, because they feel the pain in their wallets, and hence cannot believe the massaged numbers coming out of the government, nor the lies.

Finally, something I haven't picked up lately, but my forecast from about 2 years ago now, where I predicted rates would go down and not up in complete disagreement with ALL the economists, has been proven wrong.

  • Australia’s Strong Economy Proves ‘Doomsayers’ Wrong, Swan Says
  • Stevens Praises Australian Economy, Warns on Asset Bubbles

(Bloomberg) June 10, 2012 — Australia’s economic performance is proving the “doomsayers” wrong, Treasurer Wayne Swan said ahead of a government conference this week to address challenges including an elevated currency and uneven growth. 
[...] Public support for Gillard’s government isn’t getting a lift from one of the fastest-growing economies in the developed world, led by the resource-rich regions in the north and west. Consumer confidence is subdued and her governing Labor Party trails in opinion polls as tourism, manufacturing and retail industries across the south and east struggle with the sustained strength of the local currency.
“There are always those who are all too ready to talk down our nation’s prospects,” Swan said. “Over the past week, the doomsayers have been proved to be completely and absolutely wrong.” 
[...] Still, consumer confidence in May was near the lowest level this year
[...] Australia’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points late last year and a further 75 points in the past two meetings. At 3.5 percent, the overnight cash rate target is still the highest among major developed economies.

(Bloomberg) June 10, 2012 — Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens expressed optimism about the nation’s economy and cautioned against monetary policy settings that could reignite asset bubbles, the risk of which he said was low. 
[...] Stevens’s speech, titled “The Glass Half Full,” urged Australians to embrace more subdued spending and borrowing, and steadier asset prices, as a path to sustainable economic expansion and wealth. Employment growth this year and a gross domestic product report showing the economy grew 1.3 percent last quarter, more than twice the level forecast, underscore the nation’s resource-fueled strength.

No comments: