Equities Relief Rally About to Top

Within just a couple of weeks, the equities markets have had a choppy yet meaningful rebound: the ES futures contract for example bottomed at 1262 and reached 1357 yesterday, close to a 100 points rally.

Of course, markets were oversold, so the relief rally was necessary to allow the decline to resume and shouldn't come as a surprise, even though I didn't want to participate in it — with hindsight the choppiness of it would have been difficult to navigate.

With the US, Europe, China, Australia economies in rapid decline, and the markets still smoking the hopium of Central Banks money printing, and expecting the Fed to come yet again to the rescue, I believe that the likelihood for the top to occur on Wednesday evening US time (Fed announcing maybe another round of QE, or most likely, announcing another more meaningless action such as Operation Twist), or give or take a couple of days for the markets to enjoy the rally before topping.


pms said...

does it change your stand on the euro trade, silver and gold?

pej said...

PMS, please see my latest post, sorry, I left it as draft yesterday...