Equities Rallying, Is It Really Time To Buy the Dip?

Equities have been rallying yesterday and today (futures markets in the US so far are up about 1%, and the ES is trading at 1300 handles).

I'm not buying the idea that a meaningful rebound is in deck yet. I still think:

  • too many people are calling for a bottom
  • too many people are talking about buying opportunities
  • too many people are smoking the hopium that Germany will cave into the request of Eurobonds, and agree to basically, to finance all the deficits of the profligate southern states. This would be a completely destructive move for Germany, and would simply be kicking the can down the road. Now, it wouldn't be the first time such a thing would be done by our lovely, intelligent, and competent politicians, but in this particular case, I think Merkel would be committing the political suicide of her party. Since with politics, the interest of the few who have the power prevail the interest of the whole country, I don't think it will happen. The beauty is that in this particular case, the interest of the country is actually aligned with the interest of the political class.
  • the US equity market has not even declined 10% yet.
  • the VIX shows one thing: the complete lack of any fear.

I'm just watching the markets from the sidelines, at least in terms of short-term positions. My long term puts are still in place, with appropriate hedges. I might look into shorting the market if the rebounds continue, or buy the market if real fear is shown.

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