Back from China - Portfolio and AAPL update

I got back from China last Sunday, and took some time to do touristy things and relax.

In the meantime, the Euro sunk, and my options hit their stop-order. I don't know where was the Euro trading, but the time of the trade is suggesting somewhere around 1.32$ per Euro.

I don't know where the Euro will go, but the ECB is flooding so much the market, that a potential rationalization could be this flood of Euros coming in the market. Has the Euro topped? and will the USD rally continue? I need to spend more time on this, but I'm currently lacking time.

Finally, today, the S&P was touching the 1,400 mark at the some time where AAPL was reaching $600. How sustainable is this? Not much. As you know if you've been following this blog for a long time, I own Apple shares, and have held them since 2000, where I bought them at the current level of $13. So I'm not playing the perma-bear guy here. The rate of growth and the current valuation of Apple are not sustainable.

Of course, the capitalization weighted S&P and Nasdaq have been largely driven by AAPL which is now such a massive one, easily toping the second largest market cap, Exxon, by about 20%. So when Apple tops, the markets top most probably, and we're not far from that.


farm land investment said...

Frankly speaking, I'm a lot more suspicious that AAPL can keep rising then the I am of the market as a whole. FT had an article saying its predicted the FTSE could double over the next 10 years. As a Brit, this made me quite pleased!

pej said...

Wow! Do you have the link that FT report?
As per AAPL, my point was that the market cap weighted indices are so biased toward AAPL that they are just a proxy for the apple shares movements. So basically, it means: where AAPL goes, the market goes.

Tiho said...

I have to admit that I am now slowly starting to get bearish. Since March 09 I have been a bull, while perma bears like pej called for a recession every 3 months and a market top every 4 months.

I think we are coming close and if S&P comes close to 1500, bull could start topping... I'm also bearish on Apple now. This is a parabolic!

pej said...

cool Tiho, you're finally starting to open your eyes and see out of the Bubble-Economy you're leaving in.