Portfolio Update — Long EUR

I haven't had much time to write in the past couple of days. But here's a quick portfolio update:
  • I started buying Euros against SGDs which is trading as a historical high. This I don't really consider as part of my portfolio, since it's my personal bank accounts we're talking about...
  • I also open a small speculative position on EUR/USD by buying call options strike 1.28. Let's see this one unwinds. I hope to be able to increase the size if I'm proven right. EUR/USD was trading at 1.2730 when I opened the position a few minutes ago.


Tiho said...

Why don't you buy a a 6month call with a strike at $1.40. That way you can clean up!

Tiho said...

Actually, no. It will play out like this:

Even though we are so close to the bottom, first Euro will fall a little bit more shaking out the last of weak hands with a break below $1.26 and than you will panic and close your trade.

Once you do that, it will be a signal to buy the Euro hehehehe!

pej said...

Why would I by strike $1.40? I don't the Euro will rebound enough to make that trade very profitable: if the Euro closes at 1.40USD my option will be valued 0.12 while your suggestion will be valued 0.00.

The reason why I used options is exactly so that I do not have to close my position if it goes lower.

In any case, so far, you've been wrong on your forecast :-)

Tiho said...

You have gotten everything wrong I have eve heard you say.

What have I been wrong on pej? You go over and read my blog and the investments I make. Point to the one that has gone wrong?

People are giving me compliments for literally bottom and top picking every single market from Equities in late September and early October, including the bottom I called on the 04th of October, to calling the current Treasury top in late November early December (yet to play out but it will) to bottom ticking Silver at $26.50 in late December to top ticking Swiss Franc vs US Dollar just recently.

This is all done in real time Pej. Just read the blog posts... so what have I called wrong? And what have you gotten right? Answer: absolutely nothing!

Tiho said...

p.s. And you buy OTM strike on the Euro up to $1.40 USD or even higher, because that is how HIGH the Euro will go. In other words... Dollar is toast.

And in a few months that will be another call I got right.