ECRI Reaffirms Recession Call

Here's a very good interview of the ECRI co-founder, Laskhman Achuthan who confirms his call for the recession in Q4, and more precisely, he said we are already in recession. Consistent with my view, and opposite of 99% of the economists. The fact that the talking heads are denying and rejecting strongly his statements is an even stronger confirmation that it must be true.

This is generally a very good interview as Lakshman is a very bright guy exposing his ideas clearly and opposing the talking heads — not just confirming, agreeing, all the silly statements coming from those ignorant people.

Here's the link to the interview on CNBC in case the embedded version below doesn't work.


Here's the video interview from the 30th of September mentioned during this previous video:


Tiho said...

ECRI do great work without a doubt. I'm also becoming more and more negative as I think recession is now slowly becoming more and more of a risk. However, we might muddle through for another quarter or two.

However, what I found funny was your quote:

"Consistent with my view, and opposite of 99% of the economists."

That is hilarious dude. You make yourself sound like a contrarian, but you've been calling for a double dip recession since late 2009 and have been hopelessly wrong the whole way through.

I'll tell you what... if you stick with your call, eventually.... eventually.... recession will come and guess what? You'll be right hahaha! Than you can tell everyone - I TOLD YOU SO!


pej said...

Just three points:

0- Do you believe GDP has any meaning at all? I believe it's 200% bullshit.

1- I don't believe there has been a recovery in any real sense, in the US. And if you believe so, you're delusional.

2- Some people forecast the future, and some people forecast after the facts. You seem to be among the latter ones :-)

3- Yes, you told me I would eventually be right, and it turns out, I am right. In the meantime, economists, strategists and so forth, along with the Fed, are upping their GDP forecasts for next quarter and next year.

Tiho said...

Just like to Comment on point 2. I have forecast that we will NOT have a recession, we will NOT have a repeat of 2008 and we will NOT have a crash in the Aussie Dollar, Gold and other commodities.

Today, that is a FACT. When I said it, everyone was against me. The public was bearish viz-a-viz consumer sentiment, hedge funds were bearish, investors were bearish, fund managers were bearish...

The day of the bottom in early Ocotber you asked me how to short Aussie banks. I told you I would sort anything, I told you I would buy back than. Did you buy?

Enough said.

Tiho said...

Last sentanace correction:

I told you I wouldn't short anything, I told you I would buy back than.

pej said...

Well, consider your forecasts accurate then.

And I will forecasts mine accurate, once they have happened as well :-)

If you still believe the Aussie dollar will remain at these bubble levels, and that the boom in mining will never end, you are close to delusion.

BTW, you might want to look at my latest post: the speculation in agricultural commodities will also end in tears.

I just hope you'll be clever enough to sell sooner rather than later.

pej said...

BTW, I am now contemplating shorting the WTI again :-)

Tiho said...

I really think you have no idea what you are doing. You are going to get killed in the markets with your calls!

pej said...

We'll see my friend, we'll see.

Looks like I should have opened my short position ;-)

pej said...

For the records, your comment dated "15 November 2011 14:01" marked the peak of the AUD, EUR, Silver.

The AUD is now trading below par to the USD.

Silver has dropped from $35 to just above $30.

Seems like I'm not the only contrarian indicator.

Tiho said...

Hahaha Silver dropped from $35 to $30... hahahahaha! You must think I am a short term trader or something. So it dropped $5... so what? It went from $9 in 2008 - when you called it the end of speculative mania and start of deflationist - to $50 in 2011 before this correction.

And it will end up in triple digits by the mid decade. So yes, you are a great contrarian indicator.

p.s. How did your short on Oil go? Hahaha! You know the funny thing is you have been trying to short Oil since the start of the year when it was at $110. And it is still around a $100 today. Where is this great crash you keep talking about?

Sure every market has a drop of 20% to correction. Some are more volatile others less. But at the end of the day Oil is still where it was at the start of the year and every man plus his dog has been ultra bearish.

Tiho said...

p.s. When the war in Middle East re-starts, Oil will go to a $200 handle. Than you will be saying ohhh commodities wen tup because of a war... this is a speculative mania... ohhh I want to short it.

But obviously the reason for a war is always fight to supplies, just like in the 70s. Commodities always spike during wars and the truth is their rise creates wars. So Oil is going up due to shortages. I repeat...

It has been over 25 years since we have found a decently large elephant field. Known reserves of Oil are running out at 6% per annum according to the IEA. In two evades, Oil reserves will be depleted.

So are you going to use an electric car to drive to work pen?

pej said...

I didn't short oil, and luckily, I had closed some short positions and open some shorts put position at the same time as I closed my short EUR long USD positions.

Anyway, hold on to your things, your precious silver and oil. I will them from you some time in future. say $5 per oz and $10 per barrel!

Ok, I admit, I'm pushing it a bit :-)