Is that reasonable, really?
People are still putting an 'if' before the word 'recession'. What are they thinking? We've been in a depression for more than 3 years now! It's just not visible to bankers who have been bailed out, but to the average Joe, it's a different story...
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Silver, the best-performing and most-volatile precious metal of the past year, may rebound from a bear market as investors bet on growth in developing nations and an extended European debt crisis.
The metal may average $38 an ounce this quarter and rise to a record $42 by the final three months of 2012, compared with $31.97 at 9:19 p.m. in Singapore yesterday, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.
[...] “Prices now look relatively cheap to where they have been recently,” said David Wilson, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London and the most accurate silver forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the two years through June.
“The backdrop is still very supportive for gold and we think that silver will leverage off the back of that. Emerging markets are going to be important for demand for sure.”
Silver slumped as much as 48 percent after reaching a 31- year high of $49.845 in April. Used in everything from jewelry and coins to solar panels and film, the commodity returned more than any other major precious metal over the past year with a gain of 34 percent.
The metal tumbled 28 percent last month, the biggest drop since 1980, as equities and commodities slumped on signs growth was slowing.[...]
“The fundamentals still look very weak,” said Suki Cooper, a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in New York who expects silver to average $27 in the fourth quarter of next year. “The downside still looks much more vulnerable, given that we’re not seeing the same strength in industrial demand that we have seen previously, and given that mine supply still looks very healthy.”
Silver may also fail to protect investors’ assets should economies tip back into recession. It slumped 24 percent in 2008, the most in almost a quarter century, as gold rose 5.5 percent. Investors for now are getting more bullish. [...]