Complacency or Capitulation?

I'm thinking short term, we're hearing too much pessimistic forecasts and discussions. At the same time, complacency is still high in the market action itself: put/call ratio, people still being 100% invested, etc.

While I dig that out and try to find my answer, please share you opinion!

So, what do you thinks? Comment on this post, or drop me an email "spam.recycler @ gmail.com".


Tiho said...

I vote complacency.

pej said...

Hahah, at least you kept you sense of humor :-)

Tiho said...

No really I do! =)

You think I'm joking... well technically I believe now is the time to buy and that will produce complacency. Here is what I see:

This up and coming October bottom will produce a rally that will last for awhile and its worth buying. But what then?

China is going into a massive shit of a problem - excuse my language. Therefore complacency during the rally into year end will have a huge surprise in 2012...

China! I'm keeping my US Dollars for now and I'm still short precious metals.

pej said...

I think you're right: we're still probably going to drop a bit further — specially given the crazy action at the close yesterday, and then we'll rebound for a month or two, before falling again like a rock.

Tiho said...

Yeah sorry... the rock part I do not agree with. Bernanke will print much much more money during the second crisis and the only thing that will fall like a rock will be Treasury Bonds and the US Dollar, after the current period of fear is finished.