2011-10-18

Complacency or Capitulation? The Answer Was...

... near term capitulation.

On the 3rd of October, right before the bottom, I asked the question whether we were having too much complacency or were finally hitting short-term capitulation.

As I commented, we dropped further, and all of the sudden everything changed overnight: I left my computer at 2 AM Singapore time, and the markets were 2% down, and I woke up at 5AM to find that the markets had closed at +2%, rallying 4% in about 40min. This then led to one of the biggest rallies I've seen in the past 3 years.

Unfortunately, I was traveling, so the only thing I could do is see my profits melt. Luckily I had sold short some puts, which lead to some minimal gains compared the big drop in profits of my portfolio.

I don't think markets can rally much higher than were they are at the moment, so if it is very frustrating for people who spends their days in front of their computers, it didn't really affect me as I was away. Anyway, what's done is done, so it's time to move on and focus on what's coming.

3 comments:

Tiho said...

What's coming over the coming years is a commodity bull market rally that hasn't been seen since the 1970s, more money printing and more squeezing of short bearish investors and put buyers!

pej said...

mate, you complain that I'm always talking about the same bearish trends and short positions, but you always also give the same speech.

Tiho said...

Yeah thats right, the correct speech...