More signs of complacency

First analysts are lowering their estimates, but are still forecasting record earnings on the S&P500 and second, their forecast is still for about 10 to 20% gain before the end of year. We are already mid-september. Are they really thinking we can rally that much in just 2 and a half months?
Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- [...] Adams, the New York-based equity strategist at Wells Fargo, reduced her year-end price forecast for the S&P 500 by 10 percent to 1,250. 
Knapp, the head of U.S. equity strategy, lowered his to 1,325 from 1,450. 
Strategists at Wall Street firms from UBS AG to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have slashed their forecasts for the benchmark U.S. equity measure since the beginning of August.
Second, the equity Put/Call ratio shows an elevated level, but nothing close to the highs of the past several years, quite surprisingly given the market action of the past few weeks:


Tiho said...

Complacency? Hahaha! I love it...

I just don't know where you come up with this stuff, but it is really awesome! =]

pej said...

Given the market action, the fact that the put buying is not outpacing the call buying by a large margin shows complacency.

Moreover, short covering with these sorts of reverse-crash upwards will create a nice vacuum below the market :-)

Tiho said...

Well, now that we can see how history unfolded, we can see it was pessimism and no complacency. We can see in fear too many became bearish and shorted and now a huge short squeeze followed.

Tiho said...

Looking back on this, we can see it was a bottom. This is typical call of complacency on your blog, which is always wrong in timing.

And reading your comments from 15th of September we can see that you just make up mumbo jumbo on the spot. You actually do not have any solid evidence of a) short covering vs real buying; and b) complacency vs capitulation.

You really need to go back to the start and study the market from beginning. It is obvious that you are struggling and most likely very unprofitable from your calls. I'm just trying to help. Honesty in the first step forward!

pej said...

Thanks for helping dude. I'm actually thinking about writing another of those complacency posts :-)