Financial Mania

Signs that the financial assets mania is still well entrenched are abounding everywhere in the world, with advertisements for trading stocks or gold or oil or forex (strangely, nothing about bonds...) seen on general  public news papers or TV or public transports.

Here is a picture taken yesterday on Orchard Road in Singapore, the main shopping street of the City-State, equivalent to the Champs Elysées in France.

The stocks will not bottom until the mania ends, and here we can see that we're very closed to the highs of the mania, and not anywhere near the lows...


Tiho said...

haha! no actually I would say bonds have never made anyone money throughout the history of man kind.

everything has always gone bust... eventually. and therefore so do bonds.

on the other hand commodities can never go to zero! =)

proof? how many billionaires on the Forbes list are bonds self made, and how many are commodities self made?

stick to the real stuff, until it turns into a huge bubble, than we will all sell!


Tiho said...

p.s. when I say stick with it... I mean wait for a big correction like now (and more selling to come) and than when it finishes, buy as much commodities as possible with no leverage with 90% of your portfolio and hold for a few years!

Than, you will be a much wealthier man than from a few years ago! =)

pej said...

Yes my friend, I will do so. Once I see enough value to be held long term.

The more I speak with you, the more I hear Jimmy Rogers. Is there any chances you actually are Jim@Singapore? and just disguised as Tiho@Australia?

Tiho said...

What would you rather?

Be smart like Prechter or Rosenberg; or be rich like Soros and Rogers?

I'll leave reasoing to "academics" to "scholars" as to why we are going to experience deflation, and in the meantime I will invest like "true money makers" and invest in mining, farming, energy and other commodities.

You will notice Soros discusses EU problems all the time in FT and on TV, but he is just buying farmland with his money.don't worry about "opinions", following the "money" pej!

pej said...

When you have a billion to invest, you can't do it in the same liquid/agile way as when you have like us, tiny money to invest. So they do not have the same constrains, and we have the advantage of not moving the markets when we trade.

That said, I can't afford to lose 50% before I gain 200% investing in illiquid stuff :-)

In anyway, I see that you are shorting everything that I am short, so we kind of agree on the direction of the market. I will invest when I feel we are at a bottom, not when everybody is calling a buying opportunity of a lifetime...