Bill Ackman's 40min Must-See Presentation On His HKD Trade

Bill Ackman, the well known hedge fund manager of Pershing Square, has made a great presentation during the Delivering Alpha conference available on CNBC.

As I told my friend, I am not a big fan of the stock picking strategy as those following it — no matter how brilliant they are, such as Ackman, Einhorn, Buffett... — forget the macro-economic and index speculation forces are far bigger than what a single stock can handle. During major crashes or economic shifts, no matter how great the company is and how much thought you've put into your trade, the stock is going to crash.

This is actually what happened back in 2008-2009 when Bill Ackman's Target position soured and his $1 billion Target focus fund collapsed by an amazing 90% — playing with options can be dangerous.

Nonetheless, this is a fantastic presentation — you will learn the history of monetary policy in HK, and the background analysis of his trade and how he's acting on his analysis.

The 150 slides are available on Scribd.

 

After doing some research, I found this ZeroHedge post which mentions that DB is actually forecasting a complete different outcome for the HKD, and the DB report is available from their post.

This looks like a very interesting macro-trade, which could be as major as the Soros' sterling bet or the SNB CHF peg: potential to create billions of dollars of gains if you plain it right. I will certainly start analysis this myself and see whether and how I would like to play it.

(Thanks to my friend Mr. H. for sending me the link)