Market Pulse — Where To From Here?

My opinion — not share by many people — is that there's still too much bullishness in this market to signal a mid-term or long-term bottom.

There are always new reports that are interpreted as bullish/positive and hence, worry me.

Insiders are very bullish — why?

Buybacks are making a big come back — the fact it has return to the levels of 2006 and 2007 is supposed to reassure us? Is any analyst/investor/executive question the use of the war chest to buy cash? Of course not, as they are just so bullish and blinded by their greed.

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. companies are authorizing share repurchase plans at a rate that may make 2011 the third biggest year for buybacks since at least 1985, according to Birinyi Associates Inc. 

There were $36 billion in repurchases approved last month, bringing the total this year to $324 billion, Rob Leiphart, an analyst at the Westport, Connecticut-based research firm, wrote in a note today. Should the rate hold up, 2011 would end with $554 billion. Only 2006 and 2007 had more, with $655 billion and $863 billion authorized, Birinyi data show. 

Chief executive officers have more money than ever after boosting cash for 10 straight quarters to $963.3 billion, Standard & Poor’s data show. With stocks down 14 percent from their April 2011 high, companies may be more inclined to repurchase shares than return money through dividends, he said. 

“Corporate America has a lot of money,” Leiphart said in a telephone interview. “Buybacks offer the ultimate in flexibility in that you can deploy capital and you aren’t restrained going forward.” [...]

Let's look at the bright side of the news only: the Yuan rising is positive. Of course. Let's forget the flip side which is that people who buy from China will see prices rise and will end up with less money in their pocket. But hey, we said we'll look only at the bright side of the news.

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The yuan’s strongest gain in more than three years may herald a new stimulus for a flagging global recovery as Chinese importers get more firepower to buy up goods from slowing economies in the U.S. and Europe. [...] 

I am very interested in finding out how the session will end today. If it ends up rising, with people happy to load up on risk on a Friday night and keep the risk-on trade open during the week-end, it will yet again be a sign of high bullishness. It will mean a lot to me.