2011-08-29

Blog Quote: "We will be taking out the 2009 lows more quickly than anyone expected"

A few months ago, I was happy when I found out this blog called M3 Financial Sense, as there was finally someone as bearish as me and with the same views. I don't like herding, but being always alone is not great neither... Specially since you tend to be too early as a contrarian in those cases.

Moreover, given how accurate he's been so far, it's good to have him on my side. Anyway, here's another short post from M3 Financial which I couldn't agree more:
The problem is that EVERYONE is watching the pennant that looks like it needs another low down to the 1,020 to 1,040 area in the SP500...I have not wavered from my expectation for the dollar to hit 70 and the Euro to make 1.47 to 1.5ish... The current pattern, I am afraid to say, is the worst of all scenarios... It is most likely NOT a wave 4 - it is most likely true that we completed wave 1 down and this bounce is wave 2... targeting 1,240. My clients have been alerted to this already for the last week or so... the problem with the current pattern is that it sets up a wave 3 that makes this dramatic wave down (wave 1) look potentially mild. It is certainly hard to imagine that it is possible to get harder selling than what we got on this recent wave down...however, that is sadly what looks to be in the cards. It would have been preferable to get a wave down to a new low than to have the whole move from 1,370 to 1,070 be a wave 1...but that is what it looks like to me. My systems will likely short this bounce with abandon...and I encourage everyone to think about just how dangerous this next move down has the potential to be...by the looks of things we will be taking out the 2009 lows more quickly than anyone expected.

7 comments:

Tiho said...

Hahahaha. That guy makes you look like a little young cub bear. You cannot let him out stage you in your bearish pej... You are the original ultra bear!

pej said...

Hahaha. Nice for the compliment! Unfortunately, I'm not old enough for that title, so I'll leave it to Robert Prechter. You know, he's price target for the Dow is a 3 figure number :-)
Can you find more bearish than that?!

pej said...

sorry, I meant "thanks for the compliment"

Tiho said...

Yeah you are right. Prechter outbears everyone. That's world ending super bearish!

If the world ends, you are still better off in commodities than in cash hahaha!

pej said...

Prechter is also the smartest guy I've ever seen. I mean, I highly respect Marc Faber for example, and then Jim Rogers and a few others.

But Robert Prechter is at a completely different level.

Anyway, nobody is forecasting the end of the world.

The end of many financial institutions? that's for sure. The end of the biggest speculative mania in history, and the biggest credit bubble mankind has ever known? That one as well.

Anyway, I'd better own gold than paper, that's for sure. and most of my wealth is stored in physical gold at a remote location...

Tiho said...

Hahaha that guy was a perfect contrarian indicator... the ultra perma bear that always gets it wrong!

pej said...

From his blog, he is up in the 100% this year. He seems to be doing well :-)