Very impressive interview just now on BloombergTV where Barton Biggs, the perm bull and uber incompetent hedge fund manager was scarred to death by the market. I am waiting to see the Bloomberg report come out, but it was legendary!
He still thinks that US equities are extremely cheap, and so are Asian equities.
Pathetic.
The coming bear market and the Greater Depression will crash all these ignorant fools who pretend to understand both the economic forces and the market forces.
7 comments:
Pathetic?
Barton is a legend. He has one of the greatest return records on Wall Street. You see he is a hedge fund manager with an option to buy stocks, bonds or hold cash. And you just run a blog.
The market is only down 10% for the year. For god sakes, that's not even that bad. In 1987 we crashed over 40%.
In his view, and anyone else that is smart, when we settle, this will be a great buying opportunity for stocks and not for bonds. I am not buying stocks, but commodities as I keep saying.
Where do you think he sees value? In stocks, bonds or cash? 70% of the S&P 500 is now yielding more than a 10 Yr Note. Cash is yielding nothing.
Treasuries might be a safe investment for the next week, or two or four, but that's about it. Also, this time around, the whole world is going to printing money!
This is as ignorant of the markets as one can be.
See my newer post with the video footage
S&P futures are down an extra 2.5%, oil another 6%.
You keep on making fun of my recommendation about the treasuries, but they have been making a major killing. Although, it's hard to forecast yield to go lower from where they are now... :-)
You make fun of my AUD short, now I've doubled my money on that trade, and the AUD is down 10 cents agains the USD in just 6 trading sessions.
You won't be safe in commodities — gold and silver will follow. Just look back at what happened in 2008 and 2009.
So I urge you to have your stops in place and be very prudent — I don't want you to get hit the way I got hit early 2011.
Wow AUD is gone down 8 cents in 6 days! That's amazing. Aussie was also down 8 cents in May last year at 80 cents. Aussie was also down 30 cents in 2008. Did any of this stop the bull market in the Aussie? Is the main trend down? Is a real move in an asset a 10 day fall or a 10 year bull market?
I live in Australia and we know that the Australia Dollar has doubled, gone up 50 cents, in the last 10 years. That's called a commodity bull market. And while you are too busy trying to catch 10 days in the market, AUD will eventually double from here again, and you'll still be shorting it over the next five, seven, ten years!
Aizawl was too high at 70 cents in 2006. Too high at 80 cents in 2007, too high at 90 cents in 2010 and it's too high at $1.10 in 2011. I really hope Aussie goes down another 10 or even 20 cents. It wold be a great gift for a contrarian investment!
I really hope Gold and Silver go down. I've been writing about it on my blog. I have been praying to the god of the markets that Silver goes down. That is an amazing asset, but I do not want to chase the price. I like to buy low, hold for years and than sell the final bubble. I hardly ever trade over the 10 day period.
I have a quarter of a million dollar order (Australian Dollars... A real currency) ready as soon as Silver approaches $30 or $28 or $26 or wherever it goes too!
Commodities including precious metals will make you so so so much money over the next several years. I don't short a secular bull markets. I also don't short on 10 days horizons and than say this isma global recession. That's fucken hilarious.
Tell you what, you stick with Treasuries and US Dollar, and I'll stick with Commodities and foerign currencies, which trade against the US Dollar.
Dude, what matters is how much money you make, not how long you keep your position.
Everything else equal, the shorter you hold your position, the less the risk you're taking.
So I prefer making several times 100-200% on my short on AUD than keep SLV/SI positions for 4 years, given the volatility, and the risk of a major deflationary depression.
You should read Reminiscences of The Stock Operator. Big money is made in big moves, not in daily or weekly flacuations of the tape.
But fair enough, you are a day trader, so anything is possible!
p.s. You are the ultimate perma deflationist depression fear monger! Hahaha!
I am deflationist and believe the Greater Depression will indeed be a horrible period for most of us — tales our grandchildren might one day hear of: people thinking they will become rich buy going into debt and buying a house, or people thinking that silver will reach $400 and so forth :-)
But don't worry, once the prices fall low enough, I will be and hold. I've been holding my AAPL shares for 10-11 years or so?
What's the return from $13 to about $400 a couple of weeks ago? :-)
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