Bulls are Happy — And Why Shouldn't Day? Everything is Rosy!

This is a follow up to the post I wrote last week about the markets and the economy. I would like to take the current news flow to illustrate what I meant by "Bullishness is still extreme, however you slice and dice it".

Transports Are Signaling a Global Bull Market Ahead: Hays. Quote:
Hays is emphatically in this bullish camp and points to a specific stock as a "tell" for the market as a whole: FedEx.

"If FedEx breaks out over $98.50... people are going to feel better about the economy," says Hays.
Hays emphasizes that this move will be catalyzed not just by an American recovery but one that encompasses the whole world.
That guy is so bullish, that he believes all the problems in the world will be solved if only FedEx share price moves above $98.50. If this is not voodoo trading and mania era statements, what is?

ZeroHedge spotted this amazing Bloomberg statement:
Sentiment Partially Rebounds on Lack of News Flow
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- First Word Cross Asset Dashboard showing sentiment still negative, though slightly better than at mid-day as headlines stoking concerns regarding EU debt crisis, US debt ceiling deadline has waned, writes Bloomberg analyst TJ Marta.
Another Bloomberg report, this time about art prices, sign of manic speculation: Art Prices Return to Near Peak Levels, Collector Rachofsky Says. Confidence in the resiliency of the market is back as well.
The market for contemporary art is more resilient than it was three years ago, according to Dallas- based collector Howard Rachofsky.
“There’s so much wealth in the world looking for alternative assets,” said Rachofsky. “The market is broader than it was. It’s grown with new buyers from Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. A number of players have come in from the financial industry and they look for value.
Mulberry shares up 2400% in 24 months, and a PER of 60 doesn't make many analysts worried about the company.  (thanks SS for the link):
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Mulberry Group Plc, the 40-year-old British luxury-handbag maker, is the world’s best-performing fashion retail stock over the past year and its sales may keep gaining, driven by overseas growth, analysts say.

The stock has risen 527 percent to 1,758 pence in the past 12 months, making it best performer in the apparel retailers segment, according to Bloomberg data. [...]

Investors are betting Mulberry, whose handbags include the Alexa, named after British model and television hostess Alexa Chung, and its Bayswater bag, available in a “bright-cabbage sparkle tweed” at 775 pounds ($1,250), will join the likes of Burberry Group Plc as an iconic luxury brand.
Mulberry’s shares have gained 24-fold over the past two years, making it the top gainer over the period in the FTSE AIM All-Share index of 805 British stocks. In the year ended June 30, it was the second biggest gainer on the 1,526-member Russell GLO Consumer Discretionary index, behind only Jinchuan Group Co., a Chinese nickel producer that also sells cosmetics.

Still, at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59 times, compared with 54.4 times for Hermes International SA, the French maker of Birkin handbags, the stock is approaching “full valuation” said David Stoddart, an analyst at Finncap Ltd. in London.

“I’m not at all worried about the company, but when you get beyond this, you are betting on the scale of upgrades,” said Stoddart, who has a “buy” recommendation on the shares. Mulberry raised its profit forecasts four times between last October and March.

Mulberry also has the potential to broaden its brand to products such as eyeglasses and perfume, and it has a relatively limited presence in Asia and the U.S. compared with rivals, Stoddart said.
Another less unbelievable news: Fortress Revives Four-Month Plan to Invest in Invincible REIT. Invincible REIT? You have to be kidding me. If that's not showing extreme overconfidence, specially in a market that is down 80% since the peak, then what is? Sentiment is definitely very positive, irrespective of the track record and the economic reality.
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Fortress Investment Group LLC, which manages $43.1 billion of assets, bought new shares in Japan’s smallest real estate investment trust as it revived the investment after four months.

A Fortress unit and three other investors bought 711,597 shares valued at 7 billion yen ($88 million) in Invincible Investment Corp., according to a statement by the companies through the stock exchange. Fortress will also buy 97 percent of shares in the Tokyo-based REIT’s asset manager on July 29 for an undisclosed amount.

Today’s transaction is the latest sign that the market is recovering from the record earthquake in March. Invincible canceled a plan to sell 514,304 shares for 4.8 billion yen to a unit of Fortress on March 23, while rival United Urban Investment Corp. said in May it plans to raise as much as 62.8 billion yen from a share sale it scrapped after the quake.

Fortress will own 45 percent of Invincible after the acquisition and will manage the trust, the statement said.

No comments: