Silver extreme overbullishness meets USD extreme pessimism

This is an update to my yesterday's post about silver.

First, I would like to mention that one thing that could turn all the markets around is the USD. It's extremely oversold, and sentiment has been extremely negative about it for many weeks now. So the USD is ripe of a massive rally, and with it, the "risk-off" trade, many commodities, equities and other currencies will get hammered, while treasuries and the USD will rise.

Second: silver's extreme over-bullishness is well illustrated by the speculative long positions as shows the CoT report: there's about 25,000 long speculative contracts, at $240,000 each. It's $6 billion. This is truly massive, and unwinding a position this size in such a thin market should definitely hammer the prices.

Simple math tells me that if a 26% unwinding leads to an $8 drop, 4 times this would mean a $32 drop and silver would be priced at $18? And then what happens if the short speculative positions outnumber the long ones? silver at $15 or $12 is quite a realistic target.
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Silver futures plunged the most since January [...]

Speculators cut their net-long positions in New York silver futures by 26 percent in the week ended April 26, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will gain, outnumbered short positions by 24,995 contracts on the Comex, the CFTC said. As of April 29, the value of one silver contract was $242,995.

Silver also may have fallen after failing to top $50 last week, Zeman said. The Comex record is $50.35 in January 1980.

“Silver takes three cracks at $50 and doesn’t make it,” Zeman said. “That’s an excuse to take some profits.”

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