LinkedIn down 30% in 2 trading days — PER still at 1,200

This is a follow up on the previous posts about the crazy valuations LinkedIn has reached and the exuberance of investors to what might be the final top of the biggest financial mania in the history of mankind — the last 30 years.

Mish quoted me a few days ago and mentioned that he disagreed with the PER that I came up with:
I calculate not 950 but 208 did Mish conclude.

We had a few email exchanges about this, where my point was:
The official SEC filling I saw mentioned $9 million net profits. Maybe the guy you quoted is using EBITDA or something.
This has been confirmed after several other checks that I performed... I think Mish didn't had the time to update his post accordingly.

The stock is already down 30% from the top as you can see on the chart below and Yahoo Finance is showing the same crazy PER that I found, north of 1250 after the stock declined 30%:

Moreover, I made the following comment by email that I am also sharing with you:
Now imagine LinkedIn's actual profits increase ten fold. The PER will drop to 100. Still crazy number. If you aim at a 10x increase and a 20 as PE, the share would need to drop by 80%. This is just how crazy the current price is. And bare in mind that this is an optimistic scenario. It's easy to see profits stagnate and PE fall to 10 in the case of a bear Market. In this case the stock would trade at 5-10 dollars and would still be richly valued.

Finally, to add to your opinion about linkedin: one has to bear in mind that the majority of user - say 90% - either are completely passive or have dummy accounts they do not use. Moreover the company is not a start up, it is a mature web site that is about 10 year old. So imagining a growth of several hundred percents a year for many years to come requires more than a lip of faith IMHO.

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