Massively speculative Euro rally and Dollar drop are now reverting

The Euro has been rallying dramatically over the past month or so, on nothing but very bad economic data and the commitment of traders published by the CFTC is confirming that this massive rally is driven by nothing but extreme levels of speculation.

Here are two different views of the CoT data provided by the CFTC and nicely charted by ZeroHedge and TheShortSideOfLong:

On this chart, you can see how the long EUR short USD trade has started and grown bigger and bigger during the past several weeks (click for bigger picture)

This chart shows how massive the short USD has grown over the past several weeks (click for bigger picture)

Interestingly, despite the massive increase in long EUR and short USD positions, the Euro has been falling dramatically during the past 3 trading sessions. The drop of the Euro should continue for quite some time, until these massive speculative and irrational positions are unwound, and maybe more, if the opposite positions start to build up. I wouldn't be surprised if the 1.20 floor of the past few years did fall.

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