CEOs Most Optimistic on U.S. Profits

Yet another sign of extreme optimism and bullishness...
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- More U.S. executives than ever are increasing earnings forecasts compared with those lowering them, helped by almost $2 trillion of Federal Reserve spending and a recovery in the global economy.

EBay Inc., United Parcel Service Inc. and 196 other companies raised profit estimates above analysts’ projections last month as 130 firms cut them, the biggest gap since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1999. Shipping companies and computer makers boosted forecasts the most, pushing the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of businesses most tied to the economy up 27 percent from July 2 through Nov. 5. That beat the 20 percent rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
About 1.5 U.S. companies boosted earnings estimates above analysts’ forecasts for each that cut projections in October. That’s about three times the average of 0.59 in the past 10 years, data tracked by Bloomberg show. The ratio fell to a record low of 0.1 in December 2008, three months after New York- based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy. When it reached 1.1 in March 2004, the S&P 500 rose from 1,126.21 to a record 1,565.15 in October 2007, Bloomberg data show.
“Earnings have been phenomenal out of corporate America,” Robert Doll, who oversees $3.45 trillion as chief equity strategist at New York-based BlackRock Inc., said in a Nov. 3 interview on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up” with Susan Li. “They’ve delivered versus expectations, yet again outshining the tepid economic recovery. I think that’s the real story.”
Interestingly, none of them question the reality of those earnings (like the earnings coming from banks...) or the sustainability of them (cost cutting, layoffs, etc.) in an environment were budgets are getting tighter and tighter both in the corporate world and the consumer one...

Surprisingly, the full title of the Bloomberg report is: CEOs Most Optimistic on U.S. Profits in Bull Signal while if you really understand market sentiment, this is actually a bear signal!

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