2010-10-21

The future of the housing markets in UK, France, Australia? Look into the the Irish crystal ball

You want to know the future of the housing markets in UK, France, Australia? Just take a look into the the Irish crystal ball:
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland’s housing-market slump has yet to trough in the wake of the recession, property website operator MyHome said, after two reports showed price declines continued in the third quarter.
[...]
House prices, which quadrupled in the decade through 2007, have plunged since then as the economy shrank, unemployment soared to a 16-year high and banks restricted lending. The lack of demand for property has curbed construction, which will continue to act as a drag on economic growth this year, Ireland’s central bank said yesterday.
[...]
Daft said the average cost of a home in Ireland has fallen 37 percent from its peak to an average 195,000 euros ($266,994). It also said that the total housing stock on the market remains at around 60,000.
If prices had quadrupled during the bubble as this report mentions, then they would have to fall by at least 75% to reach the pre-bubble level. And since markets always over-react, you can be sure that prices have to fall by about 80 to 90% before a real bottom has been found. 80 to 90%. I'm sure nobody would believe this is possible. Yet, it will happen.

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