A few weeks ago, I got driven out of the EUR/AUD position, making some sizable loss because I was sizably wrong, even though originally that position was highly profitable... Asta la vista.
On Friday, before the close, I reduced my long EUR position against the CAD and the USD, having a gut feeling that both the rise of the Euro was to fast to be sustainable, that the fall of the USD was also too dramatic given the deflation that's happening there, and that all in all, sentiment on equity has reached the exuberance required for a top.
Here are the relevant charts.
I was looking forward finding some interesting research over the week-end, and Babak over at Trader's Narrative happens to have the perfect data I needed
The charts below confirm my intuition that it's about time to get long USD again. I'm still very bearish on the AUD and the CAD, but it's time to use the USD and close down the EUR positions.
I wouldn't be surprised that the start of a correction in gold and equity markets will coincide with the bottom of the US, due any time soon now.
Short retrospective here, with the highlight points here:
- 2010-08-09 — I decided to stay long the Euro because John Taylor was forecasting a top, and I was forecasting he was wrong: Could John R. Taylor, Jr be more wrong? - take 2
- 2010-07-16 — I decided to stay long the Euro while Mish was forecasting a top. Tough call to go against Mish. I'm glad I was independent enough to make it: Euro update
- 2010-06-13 — I decided to jump on the long EUR after careful analysis done the previous weeks, and the fear that Bob Prechter was showing about the Euro. If even Prechter is scared and 'wouldn't touch it' it means you absolutely have to do it. Robert Prechter on BloombergTV's Closing Bell