Debunking bubble economies - The UK pt1

This post is going to a the first one on an upcoming series about the biggest and most dangerous bubble economies in the world today and which have not popped yet as people are still in denial even after the facts that those economies are already collapsing: the UK, Canada, Australia, China (list might grow further) in no particular order

The British people and government are completely addicted to borrowing and spending, and have reached unprecedented levels at this game. One might wander if it's not too late, but things are changing nonetheless.

Mortgage Approvals Fell in June as Lending Tightened, Confidence Dwindled
The number of loans granted was 48,000, compared with 51,000 in May, according to a sample from the central bank’s panel of six major lenders released in London today.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders said in a separate report today that gross mortgage lending rose 15 percent in June from the previous month to 13.1 billion pounds ($19.9 billion). Lending rose 7 percent from a year earlier, it said.
U.K. House Prices May Decline as Cuts Sap Confidence
When the market was at its peak, banks were providing loans as large as five times a borrower’s salary. That helped lift the average house price to a record 6.2 times earnings, compared with the long-term average of 3.7 times, according to Capital Economics Ltd. That ratio has since fallen to 5.2.
Values slumped 23 percent from the peak of the boom in September 2007 to the trough in April of last year
At the height of the U.K.’s previous housing boom that ended in 1989, the ratio was only 4.7. Values slumped 13 percent during the next four years. They didn’t return to pre-crash levels until January 1998, almost nine years later, even before adjusting for inflation.
Britons have been paying down debt on concern about job losses and government spending cuts. Consumer debt fell in May for a third straight month to its lowest level in six months, according to the Bank of England. Unsecured borrowing is at its lowest level since September 2007.
mortgage approvals remain at 45 percent of their long-term average.
There were 25 percent fewer house sales in the first five months of 2010 than in the previous five, according to Savills
The number of unsold houses and apartments is at the highest level in 21 months, which may force down prices, and increased capital-gains taxes may also deter buyers
There is a 70 percent chance that U.K. house prices, adjusted for inflation, will be below their peak 2007 levels in 2015 and a 50 percent chance they will still lag in 2020, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said yesterday.
UK debt is 'twice as much as we thought'
The true scale of the national debt is £2 trillion - more than twice the official figure, an alarming study shows.

The black hole in the public accounts equates to £78,000 for every household in the country.

The 'real' state of the national finances is exposed in a study published today by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which warns of a series of mammoth debts that aren't revealed by the official figures.

The national debt - forecast to reach £932m by next spring - does not include a number of expensive liabilities, such as the cost of civil service and town hall pensions and projects funded under the Public Finance Initiative
£78k per household just for the national debt. It doesn't include mortgages (at the peak of housing bubble, it must be enormous) and other unsecured borrowing such as credit card (each Briton has several of them and knows how to juggle!).

No comments: