2010-04-14

Arch Crawford forecasts 2010 peak

There's an interesting interview of Arch Crawford published on SeekingAlpha.com (provided that you set aside all the astronomy sorcery in which I don't believe a second). Here are some quotes regarding his predictions for 2010:


At a recent 1180, did the S&P 500 already peak for 2010?
The top may be this month or in May, based on normal seasonal and astrologic patterns.

Will Cardinal Climax cause just U.S. stocks to fall? Or is this a global meltdown?
Definitely global.

If I sell my stocks, as you advise, where do I put my money?
The best money will be made on the downside in shorts, stock index futures, negative ETF’s, and put options. 

Inflationists advise buying commodities, to protect against the 21% year-over-year increase in Federal Reserve assets, and the 15% year-over-year increase in U.S. public debt.
We are probably seeing a peak in general optimism about the economy and commodity prices. When suspicion arises that a double dip or worse is about to return, we will see the commodity averages slip into the tank. Even assets in the ground will not hold against a worldwide depression that is well on its way.

How do we know when it is safe to own stocks again?
"When CNBC becomes a sports station!,” to quote my friend Jim Grant.

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