On Dubai owned Dubai World default

First, a note to those who are reading on the media that "no one saw it coming": It was so obvious it was coming... It had actually already happened, in my opinion! See for yourself below:

• 2009-02-06 Dubai on the brink of collapse - The Skyscraper Curse [update]
• 2009-02-24 Dubai receives a $10 billion bail out by the UAE Central Bank
• 2009-08-16 Dubai collapses to uncharted territory
• 2009-09-14 Dubai's Wealth Fund collapses

Second, a note to all those that think that "markets overreacted" and that "Dubai World's liabilities are so small": the problem is not in my opinion that the liabilities are small or not. It's rather that it just confirms to those who thought the worst is over that they couldn't be further from the truth. It's now time for the sovereigns to default. That's what is scary and dangerous, not the tiny $60 billion of liabilities that Dubai World is defaulting on.

Below, some interesting quotes:

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai shook investor confidence across the Persian Gulf after its proposal to delay debt payments risked triggering the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001.

The cost of protecting government notes from Abu Dhabi to Bahrain rose, extending the steepest increase since February as Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, sought a “standstill” agreement from creditors. Its debt includes $3.52 billion of bonds due Dec. 14 from property unit Nakheel PJSC. Dubai credit-default swaps climbed 90 basis points to 530 after yesterday increasing the most since they began trading in January, CMA Datavision prices showed.
[...]
Dubai, ruled by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, borrowed $80 billion in a four-year construction boom to transform the economy into a regional tourism and financial hub. The emirate suffered the world’s steepest property slump in the global recession, with home prices dropping 50 percent from their 2008 peak, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings on Dubai state companies yesterday, saying they may consider Dubai World’s plan to delay debt payments a default.

My Comment: as usual, ratings agencies and analysts didn't see it come and react after the fact.

Gulf region default swaps jumped, with contracts linked to Bahrain adding 29 basis points today to 223.5, the biggest increase since Feb. 18. Contracts linked to Abu Dhabi added the most since February yesterday, climbing 36 basis points to 136.5 and were another 23 basis points higher at 159.5 today, according to London-based CMA. Qatar default swaps rose 13 basis points to 117, adding to yesterday’s 11 basis-point increase.
[...]
Dubai World had $59.3 billion in liabilities and $99.6 billion in total assets at the end of 2008, subsidiary Nakheel Development Ltd. said in an August statement. Dubai owes $4.3 billion next month and $4.9 billion in the first quarter of 2010 through government and corporate debt, Deutsche Bank AG data show.
[...]
“Nakheel is now standing on the brink of failure given the astonishing amount of cash Dubai would have to inject on it in order to see the enterprise survive,” said Luis Costa, emerging-market debt strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. “Events like this are a perfect storm.”

Dubai credit-default swaps now rank as the fifth most expensive worldwide, exceeding Iceland’s and Latvia’s.
[...]
Dubai World will ask creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend maturities, including $3.52 billion of Islamic bonds due Dec. 14 from Nakheel, Dubai’s Department of Finance said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

Dubai World’s more than 70 creditors face the prospect of writedowns on as much as $60 billion of debt if they haven’t unloaded their holdings and the state-owned company fails to win additional support from Abu Dhabi.

The biggest creditors are Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirate NBD PJSC. Other lenders include Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, according to a person familiar with the situation. Barclays slumped as much as 6.9 percent, the biggest intraday loss in a month, while RBS sank as much as 8.3 percent. Lloyds and Credit Suisse dropped more than 3 percent.
[...]
The debt “restructuring may be considered a default under our default criteria,” S&P said in a statement.

My Comment: oh really??

(Times Online) The Government of Dubai said today that it will not stand behind its wholly-owned subsidiary Dubai World, prompting fears that the company’s creditors could lose billions of dollars.

Today's comment, from Abdulrahman al-Saleh, the director general of Dubai’s Department of Finance, effectively confirms that [the] country does not have enough money to repay Dubai World’s $60 billion of liabilities. Deloitte, the accountancy firm, has been called in to restructure the giant business.