Will we have an "unexpected" GDP decline in the US as well?

The Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for September is out, and it's ugly:
In the past month, the indexes increased in nine states (Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Vermont), decreased in 39, and remained unchanged in two (North Carolina and Nebraska) for a one-month diffusion index of -60. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in seven states (Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Vermont), decreased in 41, and remained unchanged in two (Nebraska and South Carolina) for a three-month diffusion index of -68.
Here's what it looks like:
CalculatedRisk has a nice chart worth taking a look at.

Seems like the US is about to go the same path as the UK : an unexpected GDP decline in 3rd quarter. If not, it just means that the US administration managed to pull out a rabbit from the hat and that wouldn't surprise me but I wouldn't believe a second the numbers neither.

[Update: apparently, the consensus is 3.0% of annualized GDP growth of Q3. What sound like ridiculously irrealistic might actually happen in Obama's and Bernanke's Crookery Wonderland.]


Sebastian said...

I've come around to enjoying your blog and wanted to share a funny if frightening little piece by Max Keiser on the Casino Gulag Economy emerging in the US - and the UK. It's worth a quick read. - cheers


pej said...

Glad you like the blog, and thanks for sharing. Nothing is impossible, indeed, but I feel like the people are starting to get seriously upset and would expect rather some sort of revolution in the US than a military state. But who knows, maybe I am an optimist after all!!