2009-08-19

Nearly everyone was proclaiming a new bull market

I am currently reading Robert Prechter's (and A.J. Frost's) Elliott Wave Principle and discovering the principle. While still considering like some sort of voodoo or art, it is making sense to me, as I understanding the foundations of it.

That said, I simply wanted to share this quote from Robert Rhea in The Story of the Averages (1934) which you can find at page 79 of the Elliott Wave Principle. I think it is summarizing very well the current market conditions.

Talking about the upward correction of 1930:
...many observers took it to be a bull market signal. I can remember having shorted stocks early in December 1929 after having completed a satisfactory short position in October. When the slow but steady advance of January and February carried above the previous high, I became panicky and covered at a considerable loss. [...] I forgot that the rally might normally be expected to retrace possibly 66 percent or more of the 1929 downstring. Nearly everyone was proclaiming a new bull market. Services were extremely bullish, and the upside volume was running than at the peak in 1929.

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