2009-01-08

Are central banks silently selling their gold?

Rob Kirby (tries to) prove(s) that the reason why gold is not a lot higher than where it currently trades is mainly due to Central Banks around the world selling their gold silently, since he found that there's a big discrepancy between what is mined, what is scrapped from current holdings, and the deliveries on the markets.

Let’s take a look at the primary sources of global gold supply:

1] - Global gold production: has been running at roughly 2,500 metric tonnes per annum in recent years

2] – Scrap: From the available evidence, we might guesstimate that as much as 25 million ounces of gold is added to world supply through “scrap sales.”

You see folks, grade six math dictates that fundamentally, world gold supply [1 and 2, above] equal approximately 113 million ounces [88 + 25 million ounces]. Now, if one simply looks at the number of ounces of gold transferred at the LMBA in the most recent 12 month period [Dec. 07 – Nov. 08], we can see that 275.2 million ounces of gold [two and one half times annual global production + scrap] allegedly changed hands:
Month
Millions of Ounces Transferred
Dec 07
25.0
Jan 08
25.3
Feb 08
22.9
Mar 08
25.7
Apr 08
21.1
May 08
22.1
Jun 08
21.2
Jul 08
21.5
Aug 08
23.3
Sep 08
24.8
Oct 08
24.0
Nov 08
18.3
Total
275.2
This does not even touch on amounts transacted / settled on New York’s COMEX.

That such a discrepancy exists between annual global gold supply and amounts of physical ounces being transferred DICTATE that someone or something is “filling the gap.”

That something “IS” vaulted Central Bank / Sovereign gold.

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