Bullish oil and GBP [update]

It looks like I am turning bullish on crude oil and the GBP (against USD and EUR).

The facts are simple: both of them have collapsed in a very brutal way.

Oil is fundamentally a precious commodity as it cannot be created and there are going to be shortages on the long term. On the short term, I think it has fallen way too much compared the the fundamentals and it is likely due to the Great Unwind and to shorting. Shorts will have to cover, and fundamentals will prevail some time in the mid- to long-term.

The GBP has collapse almost vertically, and while I am very bearish on the UK economy, the way the collapse has happened leads me to think that this is mostly due to massive shorting. Shorts will have to cover and a rally is very likely on the short term. If you combine that with the over-valuation of the USD, a long GBP/short USD trade sounds tempting to me.

Plus, for both of them, almost all the analysts have come up with their "new" estimates (they always update their estimates after a major move, making them wrong about 95% of the times) which is also very bullish to me, since most forecast oil between $25 to $40 and EURGBP at 0.92 or something close.

Disclosure: I am long oil. I am also long GBP because my salary is in GBP. But I have not taken a speculative position on the GBP/USD yet, I might or might not do it depending on how things evolve.

[Update on the 2009-02-03: I am no longer bullish on the GBP since the last rate cut of the BoE. I have sold most of my remaining GBP that day at about 1.13€. I think the GBP's short term value will fluctuate around 1.15€ although I wouldn't be surprised by a rally to 1.20€ due to short covering but the mid- to long-term value (6 months to 3 years) of the GBP against the Euro will be about parity.

I am still bullish on oil]

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