What has changed since the last post? We had a major interest rate decrease by western central banks, which should be very bullish for gold, but gold still failed to rally. The reasons might be that on the short term, the Great Unwind is preventing Gold to take off. But once we are done with the short term liquidation of gold, I think we will have a very long bull run on the physical.
So, here's the update:
- Kitco removed all gold products from its listing, even the 1kg one, and the only product left on the store is the 400 oz bar, priced at about $336,000. (They also list Canadian Olympic Edition of the Maple Leaf but this one is only for Canadian Residents) and has only 1000 oz silver bars listed on top of that 400 oz gold bar.
- Other bullion merchants are also out or low on stocks (example in London: "UPDATE 15/10: Coins are still unavailable, bars can however be ordered. There are delays of approx 2 weeks to all Platinum, Palladium & Silver bar orders due to backlog.")
- But the two most important news the following.
The End of Gold Carry TradeLease rates on Gold are raising a lot as showed on these two charts, while interest rates on currencies are falling. They have raised from about 0.25% to almost 2.5% in a matter of weeks. Why is this important? Because the lease rate jumping while the interest rates falling will break the back of the "gold lease carry trade" and is hence a very bullish signal for Gold.
short term lease rates:
The Vaults are FullBloomberg just posted the following story, which doesn't need further explanations (emphasis mine):
Zurich Bank's Vault `Full to the Top' With Gold on Fund Demand By Rachel Graham
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Zuercher Kantonalbank, the Swiss lender that manages about $107 billion, said its gold vault is full after a surge in demand from investors seeking a haven during the credit crunch.
Assets in the Zurich-based bank's ZKB Gold ETF, backed by about 2.66 million ounces of the metal, have risen to a record for seven consecutive weeks. That amount of gold is worth about $2.25 billion at today's prices and equal to about 12 days of global production.
``Demand is so strong,'' Susanne Toren, a metals analyst at the bank, said by telephone from Zurich today. ``Our vaults are full right up to the top.''
Investors are buying gold coins and bars, and exchange- traded funds backed by physical metal, after banks including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the largest ETF backed by bullion, advanced to a record 770.64 tons (24.78 million ounces) on Oct. 10.
Rand Refinery Ltd., the world's largest gold refinery, in August said it ran out of South African Krugerrands. The Perth Mint, producer of 10 percent of the world's bullion, doubled output in the past six months.
Zuercher Kantonalbank, which is privately owned, also manages funds for silver, platinum and palladium. Sibylle Umiker, a spokeswoman for the bank in Zurich, confirmed the vaults are full and the company is looking for more space in Switzerland.
And yet, gold is down to $835 an ounce as I write this. This might be a tremendous buying opportunity. Actually, the paper gold (futures contracts) might be highly undervalued and if I had the possibility to take physical delivery, I would probably load some on my portfolio.