2008-06-13

Nothing has changed since 1929

I am by no mean an expert in the 1929 krach — it seems like B. Bernanke is — but I was nonetheless impressed by the similarities of what happened in 1929 and what is happening in 2007-2008 as the quotes below, from Peter Bernstein's book, the Power of Gold, show:
In the early days after the crash of 1929, Andrew Mellon — then Secretary of Treasury and one of the wealthiest men in the United States — gave the following advice to President Hoover: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate... purge the rottenness out of the system". At about the same time, Russell Leffingwell of Morgan offered his prescription for how to get the economy out of depression: "The remedy is for people to stop watching the ticker, listening to the radio, drinking bootleg gin, and dancing to jazz... and return to the old economics and prosperity based upon saving and working"
Hmmm... Any resemblance with what is happening today?
It also looks like Andrew Mellon was quite a knowledgeable and realistic person, not like this useless puppet who is Secretary of Treasury today.
There were a few brave souls who were convinced that it was the entire economic system that suffered from the looming maladjustments, not the morals of the players in the stock market. [...] They sought means to reliquify the tottering banking system and somehow put money into people's pockets so they would be both willing and able to go out and spend it.
Hmmm... Any resemblance with what is happening today?

Finally:
[...] 1930 in retrospect looks in many ways like the calm before the storm. On March 7, President Hoover reported that "All the evidence indicates that the worst effects of the Crash upon unemployment will have passed during the next 60 days." [...] The domino effect of a major crisis would not make itself felt until the end of 1930, first with the failure of Caldwell & Co., a bank in Tennessee. [...]. Some 2300 banks would follow suit over the next few months.
So, conclusion: turn on your brain, turn off BubbleTV, and think for yourself: Are we really over with the credit crisis? Is the Dow in its way breach the 15,000 or 20,000 points by year end?

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