2008-05-15

The Economic Effect of Inflation, Rothbard

In the section The Economic Effect of Inflation of his thesis What Has Government Done to Our Money, Murray Rothbard wrote:
As a result, business accounting will seriously overstate their profits during inflation — and even consume capital while presumably increasing their investments. Similarly, stockholders and real estate holders will acquire capital gains an inflation that are not really "gains" at all. But they may spend part of these gains without realizing that they are thereby consuming their original capital.
Does this ring any bell?? What happened in the whole world due to the "wealth effect" of the real estate bubble? And in the US and the UK mainly where people not only have negative saving rates but have been using their "equity release" schemes to spend the money they didn't have?
By creating illusory profits and distorting economic calculation, inflation will suspend the free market's penalizing of inefficient, and rewarding of efficient, firms. Almost all firms will seemingly prosper.
Remind you of anything? With almost no defaults for the past whole 2003-2006 period and until mid 2007, and CDS spreads close to 0 bps??
The general atmosphere of a "seller's market" will lead to a decline in the quality of the goods and of the services to consumers, since consumers often resist price increases less when they occur in the form of downgrading of quality. [...]

Interestingly, I believe this is the general idea most people have, specially in the UK, where nothing works correctly, and service is very poor, but everything is amazingly expensive.
Inflation also penalizes thrift and encourages debt[...] The incentive, then, is to borrow and repay later rather than save and lend. Inflation, therefore, lowers the general standard of living in the very course of creating a tinsel of atmosphere of "prosperity".
Feels like hitting a wall at 100 km/h?

Who can objectively deny that all the previous facts have been happening for the past 10-15 years? Who can believe in the tremendous "global growth" that has been spreading so much poverty and misery around the globe during that same period? Who can pretend that the Americans, the British, the Spanish are better off now sinking in depth and with no saving and no money in their account than they were 15 years ago? Who can pretend that the quality of life and of manufactured products or food has been increasing for the average people?

Interestingly, these are not several excerpts but a single one, from a single paragraph, which sums ups exactly what we have been going through since the start of the Internet bubble in late 1990's. Even more interesting is the fact that Rothbard passed away in 1995, so it's not like he was living it when trying to forecast it. This is just what happens when reckless and dangerous people get to make the policy of our nations.

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