BP surges the most in 19 months, on takeover speculation — what's the contrarian takeaway?

It's very interesting how things radically change in a matter of two to three weeks on the markets: On the 12th of June, Babak over at Trader's Narrative published a post about how BP was the ultimate contrarian play.

BP was the most despised stock, and talks about the company filling for bankruptcy were making headlines.

Since BP bottomed around the 23rd of June, the shares are up about 40%, and now they are just so hot... to the point that take over rumors are spread...

It means we are probably in the topping process here. I got lucky to find the courage to buy some shares in the $28.xx and my target was for it to reach $40 to $45. But the price shot up so quickly and violently, that it worries me, specially given the following Bloomberg report:

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks rallied for a fifth day, the longest stretch of gains in a month, led by BP Plc on speculation the energy company may succeed in halting the biggest oil spill in U.S. history.

BP surged the most in 19 months amid optimism Apache Corp. may buy about $12 billion worth of the oil producer’s assets.
[...]
Separately, people familiar with the discussions said BP is in talks to sell assets to Apache, which includes a share in BP’s Alaska business, for a price of less than $12 billion. BP last month said it will sell some of its assets to raise $10 billion for cleanup costs, fines and legal damages from the Gulf spill.

BP’s shares have plunged 39 percent since the April 20 accident that triggered the oil leak, prompting speculation the company may be taken over.

The Sunday Times reported Exxon Mobil Corp., based in Irving, Texas, has been told by the U.S. government it can look at a potential bid for BP. The newspaper cited unidentified people.

BP is currently trading at $38.xx in the after market. Give it a couple more days and I think we'll see the top... Probably not to far from the current levels. Wait & Pray...