2015-04-29

Euro Update

I can't believe the last post I made was already three months old. It's been 3 "crazierest" months as would come them as it seems like the world economies are imploding while the market participants are as euphoric as ever.

Anyway, here's a quick update on the EUR side:

  • Euro pessimism has been lopsided for three more months, and sentiment is still extremely negative and speculator positioning historically short against the EUR as measured for example by the COT. 
  • While sentiment has been still extremely negative and traders kept increasing their positioning against this currency, it's a very bullish sign than the EURUSD actually bottomed around the 12th of March (more than a month and a half ago).
  • A massive rally in the EURUSD has started a few days ago, and this could mark the beginning of the short covering (aka short squeeze) which in turn could lead to an as impressive rebound in the EUR than the collapse of the previous many months.
Speculator positioning historically short against the EUR as measured for example by the COT

it's a very bullish sign than the EURUSD actually bottomed around the 12th of March

A massive rally in the EURUSD has started a few days ago

This could lead to an as impressive rebound in the EUR than the collapse of the previous many months.

Disclosure: I have a long EUR position at about 1.12 EUR/USD and another one at about 1.06 EUR/USD

2 comments:

Iftekhar Ahmed said...

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