2009-03-09

GBP to be devalued by 50%-70% within next 6-12 months

I have read a very scary report about the intentions of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Mervyn King. It is now given that they will pursue the target of an inflationary collapse in the UK instead of trying to solve the problem.

Here are some details quoted from a JPMorgan report:
  • The BoE has embarked upon the most aggressive programme of QE in the industrialized world, creating base money to finance Gilt and private asset purchases worth 10% of GDP (and with no guarantee it will stop there).
  • The BoE’s asset purchase programme will likely push growth in the monetary base to 115% by May and 205% by late summer, comfortably exceeding growth in the US (93%) and Euro area (39%). The UK money base will grow nearly six times faster than it did in Japan under the BoJ’s QE policy.
  • All central banks are pursuing unconventional monetary policies now but the BoE is pushing the boundaries further than others, encompassing the de facto monetisation of the fiscal deficit.
Some other interesting information can be found on MarketWatch.

Also worth a read:
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- The British government will boost its stake in Lloyds Banking Group Plc to 75 percent in exchange for insuring 260 billion pounds ($367 billion) of toxic assets, two people familiar with the plan said.
Of course, this confirms that the UK is finished and that one must be crazy to hold any GBPs. I have sold half of my GBPs last Friday, and will sell the remaining probably within a week or two. Next step is to stell GBP short in order to hedge my salary against the coming collapse.

Also note that the US$ currency base is growing at the atronomical rate of 93% and that even in the Euro area, the growth is 39%, which is a crazy crazy rate of growth... ... but this still means that the € should raise against the USD and GBP.

The mega printing of currency in all developed and developing economies is of course very bullish for precious metals and commodities.

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