The Black Swan & The Fed

(click for bigger image)

Would you have ever predicted this black swan? Do you recognize this one? What was the probability of such an event in the Gaussian world?

The next question is: How can we trust the Feds figures for this graph, when several banks have been collapsing in the past few weeks and that the Fed has been injecting hundreds of billions of US dollars in the system, and yet fails to show any changes in the borrowing figures for the past two months?


Official figures:

Latest Observations:

Date	2008-04-01	2008-05-01	2008-06-01	2008-07-01	2008-08-01
Value	135.410	155.780	171.278	165.664	168.078

Just more lies?