tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post7756017267010597624..comments2024-02-25T08:33:45.942+00:00Comments on Reality Lenses: Wikileaks Cable Reveals Chinese Gov Aware of Bubble, Over Capacity, and Coming Downturn, and more.pejhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-66211974803673097962011-09-04T02:22:35.634+01:002011-09-04T02:22:35.634+01:001. Things don't move in straight line. Prechte...1. Things don't move in straight line. Prechter believes that we'll get to the lows in 2016 or so. I don't have any timelines in mind as far as I'm concerned, and my opinion will (or will not) change, with the macro picture and the market action<br /><br />2. If you've been reading Prechter's stuff for years, I'm surprised you're still believing that Central Banks have any power to reflate and to "save us". Maybe you should consider reading some of his stuff again!pejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-134405653410483822011-08-30T16:39:24.273+01:002011-08-30T16:39:24.273+01:00Being in Prechters camp means you won't profit...Being in Prechters camp means you won't profit from the collapse. You need cash because when Dow goes to 500, the world will be in war. There won't be a stock exchange anywhere hahahaha!<br /><br />Prechter is awesome however. I've been reading him for years. He recently recommended to short stocks in early July and nailed it.Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-64675730919217853942011-08-30T05:07:15.905+01:002011-08-30T05:07:15.905+01:00Interesting, because I have done the opposite: I w...Interesting, because I have done the opposite: I was in the inflation camp, agreeing with Marc Faber and Jim Rogers mainly.<br /><br />I have been studying history as well, and the Austrian economics school of thought, so I couldn't agree more with these two who are strong advocates of that school of thought and supporter the Mises Institute.<br /><br />One day, a blogger recommended that I read Robert Prechter's books. This was the turn of event. He is also from the Austrian school of thought, so what he says makes sense in that framework, but he incorporates a lot more in-depth behavioural analysis, which in my opinion completely made sense.<br /><br />And here I am, I've now moved to the deflationist camp.<br /><br />But you're definitely right to stick to commodities, because stagflation (although I dont think that's what we'll be facing) is not good for shares at all.pejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-552314643517579402011-08-30T05:00:19.997+01:002011-08-30T05:00:19.997+01:00Haha that's ultra bearish! SUPER BEAR!
I'...Haha that's ultra bearish! SUPER BEAR!<br /><br />I'm actually in mining and not in finance. I couldn't live with myself working for those dumb bankers. I'm not denying any of what you wrote, I just have a different view on how it's all going to play out.<br /><br />When I found out and learned about it all the first time, I was like you, worried about deflation and collapse. But than I did some historical study and realized the end game is not played out like that. <br /><br />So now I'm in the Jim Rogers camp, and stick to commodities, mining and farming. I'm in the camp of inflation (not hyper inflation) because they are going to devalue, like they always do!Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-62589934071027303862011-08-29T08:00:56.617+01:002011-08-29T08:00:56.617+01:00Dude, my friend, the blog's name is Reality Le...Dude, my friend, the blog's name is Reality Lenses, not "welcome to fantasy world" :-)<br /><br />The world is not going to end, but, there will be painful readjustment. I expect this to be far more painful than any living person has experienced in the western world. Something worst than the Great Depression — I call this the Greater Depression.<br /><br />As any big change or readjustments, the steps to that new set up will be for most people to:<br />- first deny<br />- then resist/reject<br />- finally accept/adapt. <br /><br />Since you're based in Brisbane — one of the most bubbly area of the AU bubble economy — and work in finance, I expect you to among those who will deny and resist the most. <br /><br />But since you're a very cleaver guy, in the end, you will accept and adapt, and adapt. <br /><br />See, I am hopeful!pejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-89146697993350933792011-08-29T06:57:36.705+01:002011-08-29T06:57:36.705+01:00The whole world is going to end pej! Hold on to yo...The whole world is going to end pej! Hold on to your keyboard, its going to be a shaking ride hahaha!Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.com