tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post6854765441198353276..comments2024-02-25T08:33:45.942+00:00Comments on Reality Lenses: Interesting quotes from Robert Prechter's May 2010 edition of the Elliott Wave Theoristpejhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-74265593716653047022010-06-24T01:08:28.184+01:002010-06-24T01:08:28.184+01:00Please check out my latest post for a reply to you...Please check out my latest post for a reply to your points: http://realitylenses.blogspot.com/2010/06/what-is-gold-and-what-is-it-not.htmlpejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-62963544765141523992010-06-21T21:00:43.368+01:002010-06-21T21:00:43.368+01:00Dave Narby, very good points about gold during def...Dave Narby, very good points about gold during deflation. I agree with your view. And I saw this article below about David Rosenberg's outlook that the news out of China today is much less important than the deflationary aspects that remain in the world economy. And Rosenberg remains a gold bull as well:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-Plummets-Chinas-Move-No-Panacea" rel="nofollow">http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-Plummets-Chinas-Move-No-Panacea</a>Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16387965770597385756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-83729905185992996452010-06-18T17:25:46.467+01:002010-06-18T17:25:46.467+01:00@PEJ
Agree short term gold is over bought.
Not e...@PEJ<br /><br />Agree short term gold is over bought.<br /><br />Not expecting enough of a correction to imply the bull run is over, however.Dave Narbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10773693145577366704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-4814856847204219602010-06-18T17:24:46.736+01:002010-06-18T17:24:46.736+01:00@PEJ
Gold is not a commodity.
It is money with...@PEJ<br /><br />Gold is not a commodity. <br /><br />It is money with no counter-party risk, and therefore also a 'no-confidence' vote in fiat currencies.<br /><br />That is why it does well in deflation.<br /><br />The last correction in gold was a result of desperate dollar-raising in order to prevent bankruptcies, and also selling paper gold to suppress the price, in order to prevent a flight from paper assets into physical ones.<br /><br />While this could happen again, I think that too many will be expecting this trade to repeat, many sovereigns will be lining up at this last best chance to exchange their paper for gold, and thus and gold will hold up.<br /><br />Silver usually sells off harder than gold because it is 1/2 commodity, 1/2 money. It is more likely to sell of in a deflationary impulse.<br /><br />Once that impulse is over, I expect PMs to moonshot. Silver should do better as there is likely less of it in existence above ground than gold at this point.Dave Narbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10773693145577366704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-76814190079910745842010-06-18T16:37:17.761+01:002010-06-18T16:37:17.761+01:00Anonymous — I am not predicting the end of the wor...Anonymous — I am not predicting the end of the world, and neither is Prechter.<br />We are thinking that we'll go into a deep deflation, which is not only unstopable, but also needed. It will highly benefit — on the long run — people: who can be against lower prices, lower debt, and smaller governments?<br /><br />Unfortunately, because of Keynesian brainwashing, people don't get this very simple and rational things.<br /><br />My bet is brighter future, and lower prices :-)PEJhttp://realitylenses.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-51081398348395709562010-06-18T15:10:00.133+01:002010-06-18T15:10:00.133+01:00His comments on currencies have been good lately. ...His comments on currencies have been good lately. He has been bearish on the market since 1998. Still if he's right its pretty depressing stuff. The world ends only once though, and you won't need gold, bonds or equities to see it through if that happens - you'll be dead! I bet for a brighter future where the new guys - China, India and Brazil land up doing what the old world did in the 60's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-75718565363204183812010-06-18T10:30:04.229+01:002010-06-18T10:30:04.229+01:00On the short term, gold is overbought and there...On the short term, gold is overbought and there's way too much bullishness about it for this rally and the prices to be sustainablePEJhttp://realitylenses.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-68473738048616810652010-06-18T10:29:02.663+01:002010-06-18T10:29:02.663+01:00Well, it's really hard for me to try to guess ...Well, it's really hard for me to try to guess what's going to happen to gold during a long deflation, because it's the first time in history that we'll have a deflation while currencies are not backed by gold.<br /><br />Consequently, I don't know why people keep saying that gold will do well in deflation.<br /><br />One thing is for sure, gold will do well while currencies are become more and more unstable and borrowers, specially sovereign ones, are defaulting.<br /><br />Please also note: the amount of gold available is not deflating. What is deflating is the quantity of dollars available (and euros, etc.) due to the destruction by defaults, banks unwillingness to led to insolvent borrowers, consumers and corporations unwillingness to borrow because of too much uncertainty about the future.PEJhttp://realitylenses.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-86399663497472892112010-06-18T06:59:00.676+01:002010-06-18T06:59:00.676+01:00I'm not convinced that gold will sell off in t...I'm not convinced that gold will sell off in the next deflationary impulse.<br /><br />I'm also not convinced it won't, so I say buy some gold now, buy more later.<br /><br />This is because Prechter doesn't seem to recognize that gold can do well in deflation because it's not a commodity, it's money, and in addition to being money, it's a measure of distrust in fiat currencies.Dave Narbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10773693145577366704noreply@blogger.com