tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post1812661453947081385..comments2024-02-25T08:33:45.942+00:00Comments on Reality Lenses: CEOs Reflect Speculators' Bullishnesspejhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-31957019522556839232011-11-27T03:01:07.682+00:002011-11-27T03:01:07.682+00:00Pigs can't fly.
The slow motion collapse is h...Pigs can't fly.<br /><br />The slow motion collapse is happening globally, US, Europe, China, Singapore, Australia...pejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-9482317118049417252011-10-27T07:00:22.501+01:002011-10-27T07:00:22.501+01:00Well looking back at this post, we can see that cu...Well looking back at this post, we can see that currently no economic indicators show signs of recession just yet. <br /><br />Where is the collapse?<br /><br />Obviously anything can happen in the future, so please do not say... oh just you wait and see - its coming. Anything can happen, even pigs can fly.Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-7427126113076459312011-09-09T02:59:49.828+01:002011-09-09T02:59:49.828+01:00Point taken Tiho, I should be more precise in my s...Point taken Tiho, I should be more precise in my statements.<br /><br />Speaking of what, I found this yesterday and saved for you. This is a good old collapse that is "factual" and not my "opinion":<br />(<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/japan-s-machinery-orders-fall-most-in-10-months-as-yen-gain-stalls-rebound.html" rel="nofollow">Bloomberg</a>) — Japan’s machinery orders fell the most in 10 months in July, as the yen’s gain to a postwar record eroded company profits and discouraged investment.<br />Factory orders dropped 8.2 percent in July from Junepejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-90158075476277041692011-09-09T00:56:41.203+01:002011-09-09T00:56:41.203+01:00I agree with with everything you said about leadin...I agree with with everything you said about leading indicators, being too late and the change in trend. That's all fair enough.<br /><br />My point is, in your post, you wrote, that the economy has collapsed and that indicators have collapsed.<br /><br />Objective data please? Otherwise state, my opinion is, economy could be collapsing... that way we know it's your opinion and not a fact.Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-63294559121823108172011-09-08T03:39:39.996+01:002011-09-08T03:39:39.996+01:00You're right Tiho, or actually, half right, if...You're right Tiho, or actually, half right, if such a thing exist.<br /><br />You can have a look at <a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/global-recession-right-here-right-now.html>Mish's post</a> here to find some indicators.<br /><br />In addition, note that most of these indicators are "lagging" indicators so things have had plenty of time to get worse.<br /><br />They point to the trend change, and should be used as is. If you wait for the indicators to have collapsed before acting, then you're too late.<br /><br />In my opinion, the question about the "chances of a recession" is not the right question. The question to ask is whether "when did we get into recession". As we are already in one in my opinion — provided you believed the BS from the US Gov and that ever left the previous one...pejhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958133367017526690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6630104052002496191.post-2376748583746934522011-09-08T01:00:18.697+01:002011-09-08T01:00:18.697+01:00Haha I love it!
I just wondering, which indicator...Haha I love it!<br /><br />I just wondering, which indicators showed a complete collapse of the economic output?<br /><br />Ive been going through a lot of economic data recently, to see what the chance of a recession is, so I'm struggling to see this very subjective opinion. <br /><br />Can you tell me which indicators collapsed?<br /><br />I looked at employment, and that's pretty much the same since 08. Very average performance, but no collapse. Jobless claims are above 400,000 but no collapse.<br /><br />I looked at manufacturing and industrial production. Both are still expanding, with ISM above 50. Nothing great, but no collapse.<br /><br />I looked at housing, which has been awful. Not too much progress in terms of a recovery at all, but no collapse here either.<br /><br />I looked at retail sales, vehicle sales and consumer spending. Very average data, but still no collapse, apart from vehicle one month Japanese earthquake data, which has reversed.<br /><br />I looked at inflation and definitely no collapse there. If there is thing true about Economic indicators in the US, it is that there is no deflation.<br /><br />I looked GDP, which is phony data from BLS just like everything else they lie about. Nonetheless, while growth is very slow, there is no collapse as of today!<br /><br />Now... we might have a collapse in the future, we might not. But the point is there is no collapse today. Try and keep your opinions objective, it might help you with your market views too!<br /><br />TihoTihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.com