2011-01-08

Robert Shiller S&P 500 Target for end of 2020: 1430 points

I do not often mention Robert Shiller because he is, in my opinion, like Nouriel Roubini: he sees the problems, but because his got a Keynesian-wired brain, he doesn't see the solution and suggests crazy actions involving lots of government and borrowing.

But here's an interesting forecast he is making for the S&P 500: By end of 2020 (10 years from now) he expect the value of the S&P to be 1173 (almost 10% below today's value!) and assuming 2% yearly inflation, he reaches 1430. Barely 10% higher than today including a massively overoptimistic inflation rate... Plus, he is using the current S&P earnings at face value, while in my opinion, they are far below what companies have been reporting, with all the financial industry still marking their books to fantasy.

Obviously, the anchors on CNBC are panicking.

So, again, Keynesian and inflation addicted, he manages to believe we will have 2% inflation every year for the 10 next years. Now, imagine we have 2% deflation for the next 10 years. Do not worry, I'm not gonna ask you the answer, but I've computed it myself: you'd have 958 points...

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